The potential impact on obesity of a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ireland, an effect assessment modelling study.
The potential impact on obesity of a 10% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Ireland, an effect assessment modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2458-13-860
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发表时间：
2013-09-17
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Scarborough P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Briggs AD;Mytton OT;Madden D;O'Shea D;Rayner M;Scarborough P
一些政府最近表示愿意对不健康的食品和饮料征税。2011年，爱尔兰卫生部长提议对含糖饮料（SSB）征收10%的税，作为打击儿童肥胖的措施。虽然这项拟议的税收得到了相当大的支持，但爱尔兰财政部要求对这项措施进行健康影响评估。作为评估的一部分，我们着手建立对肥胖影响的模型。我们使用价格弹性估计来计算10% SSB税对SSB消费的影响。我们假设SSB的自有价格弹性为-0.9，我们假设消费者的税收转嫁率为90%。爱尔兰的基线SSB消费和肥胖患病率（按年龄、性别和收入组）来自2007年生活方式和营养态度调查。比较风险评估模型用于估计对肥胖的影响所产生的热量消耗的预测变化，为整个人口和亚组（年龄，性别，收入）。对价格弹性估计和税收转嫁率进行了敏感性分析。我们估计，对SSB征收10%的税将导致每人每天平均减少2.1千卡的能量摄入。在对自我报告的数据进行调整后，预计10%的税收将降低肥胖成年人口的比例（体重指数[BMI] ≥30 kg/m2）减少1.3%，相当于9，900名成年人（95%可信区间：7，750至12，940），超重或肥胖人群（BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2）减少0.7%，即14，380名成人（9，790至17，820）。男性（1.2%）和女性（1.3%）的肥胖减少率相似，每个收入组的减少率也相似（各收入组的减少率在1.1%至1.4%之间）。年轻人的肥胖率下降幅度大于老年人（例如，18-24岁的成年人为2.9%，65岁及以上的成年人为0.6%）。这项研究表明，在爱尔兰对SSB征税将对肥胖产生微小但有意义的影响。虽然这种税会被认为影响到整个人口，但从健康的角度来看，这种税将主要影响作为SSB主要消费者的年轻人。
Some governments have recently shown a willingness to introduce taxes on unhealthy foods and drinks. In 2011, the Irish Minister for Health proposed a 10% tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) as a measure to combat childhood obesity. Whilst this proposed tax received considerable support, the Irish Department of Finance requested a Health Impact Assessment of this measure. As part of this assessment we set out to model the impact on obesity. We used price elasticity estimates to calculate the effect of a 10% SSB tax on SSB consumption. SSBs were assumed to have an own-price elasticity of −0.9 and we assumed a tax pass-on rate to consumers of 90%. Baseline SSB consumption and obesity prevalence, by age, sex and income-group, for Ireland were taken from the 2007 Survey on Lifestyle and Attitude to Nutrition. A comparative risk assessment model was used to estimate the effect on obesity arising from the predicted change in calorie consumption, both for the whole population and for sub-groups (age, sex, income). Sensitivity analyses were conducted on price-elasticity estimates and tax pass-on rates. We estimate that a 10% tax on SSBs will result in a mean reduction in energy intake of 2.1 kcal/person/day. After adjustment for self-reported data, the 10% tax is predicted to reduce the percentage of the obese adult population (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m2) by 1.3%, equating to 9,900 adults (95% credible intervals: 7,750 to 12,940), and the overweight or obese population (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) by 0.7%, or 14,380 adults (9,790 to 17,820). Reductions in obesity are similar for men (1.2%) and women (1.3%), and similar for each income group (between 1.1% and 1.4% across income groups). Reductions in obesity are greater in young adults than older adults (e.g. 2.9% in adults aged 18–24 years vs 0.6% in adults aged 65 years and over). This study suggests that a tax on SSBs in Ireland would have a small but meaningful effect on obesity. While such a tax would be perceived as affecting the whole population, from a health prospective the tax will predominantly affect younger adults who are the main consumers of SSBs.
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