Local- and regional-scale air pollution modelling (PM(10)) and exposure assessment for pregnancy trimesters, infancy, and childhood to age 15 years: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC).

Local- and regional-scale air pollution modelling (PM(10)) and exposure assessment for pregnancy trimesters, infancy, and childhood to age 15 years: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC).
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DOI:
10.1016/j.envint.2018.01.017
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发表时间:
2018-04
影响因子:
11.8
通讯作者:
de Hoogh K
de Hoogh K
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Gulliver J;Elliott P;Henderson J;Hansell AL;Vienneau D;Cai Y;McCrea A;Garwood K;Boyd A;Neal L;Agnew P;Fecht D;Briggs D;de Hoogh K

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我们建立了空气污染模型,以研究雅芳父母和儿童纵向研究 (ALSPAC) 出生队列中怀孕和婴儿期 (1990-1993)、童年和青春期直至约 15 岁 (1991-2008) 期间的颗粒物 (PM10) 暴露。对于妊娠期和婴儿期(出生至 6 个月;7 至 12 个月),我们使用本地 (ADMS-Urban) 和区域/远程 (NAME-III) 空气污染模型,并使用本地非人为来源的模型常数。对于较长的暴露时间(每年以及出生至约 8 岁和约 15 岁的平均年龄,以与相关的后续诊所一致),我们评估了当地 PM10 来源的空间对比,所有背景来源的浓度逐年变化。我们对 19 年来 36,986 个地址位置的 PM10 (μg/m3) 进行了建模,然后在计算不同时期的暴露量时考虑了地址的变化:妊娠期/婴儿期 (n=11,929);到 15 岁左右的每一年 (n=10,383)。妊娠三个月期间的受试者内暴露对比最大(第 5 至第 95 百分位:24.4–37.3μg/m3),并且主要与区域/远程 PM10 的时间变异性有关。从出生第一年(平均浓度=31.2μg/m3)到~15岁(平均=19.6μg/m3),PM10暴露量平均下降了11.6μg/m3,在随访诊所(~8岁到~15岁)之间平均下降了5.4μg/m3。 8 年平均 PM10 暴露量(第 5 至 95 个百分位)的空间对比度相对较低:~8 岁为 25.4–30.0μg/m3,~8 岁至~15 岁为 20.7–23.9μg/m3。在怀孕和婴儿期,当地来源对 PM10 总量的贡献为 18.5%–19.5%,在随访诊所之前的时期为 14.4%–17.0%。研究区域内的主要道路在所有时期平均占 PM10 总暴露量的 3.0% 左右; 9.5% 的地址位于主干道 50m 以内。暴露估计将用于许多计划的流行病学研究。针对大量出生群体(怀孕、婴儿、儿童)的 PM10 暴露评估 本地(主要道路、其他)和区域/远程源的单独暴露。来自当地主要道路的初级 PM10 平均占 PM10 总暴露量的 3%。妊娠三个月期间的最大对比(第 5 至第 95 百分位:24.4–37.3μg/m3)平均 PM10 暴露量从 1 岁左右的 31.2μg/m3 下降到 15 岁左右的 19.6μg/m3。
We established air pollution modelling to study particle (PM10) exposures during pregnancy and infancy (1990–1993) through childhood and adolescence up to age ~15 years (1991–2008) for the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. For pregnancy trimesters and infancy (birth to 6 months; 7 to 12 months) we used local (ADMS-Urban) and regional/long-range (NAME-III) air pollution models, with a model constant for local, non-anthropogenic sources. For longer exposure periods (annually and the average of birth to age ~8 and to age ~15 years to coincide with relevant follow-up clinics) we assessed spatial contrasts in local sources of PM10 with a yearly-varying concentration for all background sources. We modelled PM10 (μg/m3) for 36,986 address locations over 19 years and then accounted for changes in address in calculating exposures for different periods: trimesters/infancy (n = 11,929); each year of life to age ~15 (n = 10,383). Intra-subject exposure contrasts were largest between pregnancy trimesters (5th to 95th centile: 24.4–37.3 μg/m3) and mostly related to temporal variability in regional/long-range PM10. PM10 exposures fell on average by 11.6 μg/m3 from first year of life (mean concentration = 31.2 μg/m3) to age ~15 (mean = 19.6 μg/m3), and 5.4 μg/m3 between follow-up clinics (age ~8 to age ~15). Spatial contrasts in 8-year average PM10 exposures (5th to 95th centile) were relatively low: 25.4–30.0 μg/m3 to age ~8 years and 20.7–23.9 μg/m3 from age ~8 to age ~15 years. The contribution of local sources to total PM10 was 18.5%–19.5% during pregnancy and infancy, and 14.4%–17.0% for periods leading up to follow-up clinics. Main roads within the study area contributed on average ~3.0% to total PM10 exposures in all periods; 9.5% of address locations were within 50 m of a main road. Exposure estimates will be used in a number of planned epidemiological studies. PM10 exposure assessment for a large birth cohort (pregnancy, infancy, childhood) Separate exposures for local (main roads, other) and regional/long-range sources. Primary PM10 from local major roads on average was 3% of total PM10 exposures. Largest contrasts for pregnancy trimesters (5th to 95th centile: 24.4–37.3 μg/m3) Mean PM10 exposures fell from 31.2 μg/m3 age ~1 to 19.6 μg/m3 age ~15 years.
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