Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1).
Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1).
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DOI：
10.1186/1741-7015-7-30
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发表时间：
2009-06-22
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Blower S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coburn BJ;Wagner BG;Blower S
在这里，我们回顾了流感模型研究的文献，并讨论了这些模型如何为当前流行的新型甲型流感 (H1N1) 毒株（以前称为猪流感）的未来提供见解。我们讨论控制流行病的可行性如何严重依赖于基本再生数（R0）的值。最近估计新型甲型流感 (H1N1) 的 R0 介于 1.4 至 1.6 之间。该值低于 1918-1919 年大流行毒株的 R0 估计值（平均 R0~2：范围 1.4 至 2.8），与季节性流感毒株的 R0 估计值相当（平均 R0 1.3：范围 0.9 至 2.1）。通过回顾之前的模型研究结果，我们得出结论，理论上 H1N1 流感大流行是可以得到遏制的。然而，即使在资源丰富的国家，达到控制所需的疫苗接种和治疗水平也可能不可行。正如最近的一项模型研究表明，为了控制大流行，全球合作战略至关重要。这一战略将要求资源丰富的国家与资源有限和资源匮乏的国家分享疫苗和抗病毒药物。我们通过讨论开发新的生物复杂模型的必要性来结束我们的评论。我们建议这些模型应同时追踪多种流感病毒株在鸟类、猪和人类群体中的传播动态。这些模型对于确定有效的新干预措施和为大流行病防备计划提供信息可能至关重要。最后，我们表明，通过对跨物种传播建模，有可能预测大流行性流感毒株的出现。
Here we present a review of the literature of influenza modeling studies, and discuss how these models can provide insights into the future of the currently circulating novel strain of influenza A (H1N1), formerly known as swine flu. We discuss how the feasibility of controlling an epidemic critically depends on the value of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0). The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918–1919 pandemic strain (mean R0~2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1). By reviewing results from previous modeling studies we conclude it is theoretically possible that a pandemic of H1N1 could be contained. However it may not be feasible, even in resource-rich countries, to achieve the necessary levels of vaccination and treatment for control. As a recent modeling study has shown, a global cooperative strategy will be essential in order to control a pandemic. This strategy will require resource-rich countries to share their vaccines and antivirals with resource-constrained and resource-poor countries. We conclude our review by discussing the necessity of developing new biologically complex models. We suggest that these models should simultaneously track the transmission dynamics of multiple strains of influenza in bird, pig and human populations. Such models could be critical for identifying effective new interventions, and informing pandemic preparedness planning. Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
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DOI：
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