The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally.
The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally.
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.abm6860
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发表时间：
2022-05-06
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
2021年6月，北美西部经历了一场破纪录的热浪，超出了之前观测到的温度分布。虽然这一事件显然是极端的，但世界上其他地区是否也经历了迄今为止超出其自然变异性的事件，这一点并不明显。使用一种新的极端热评估，我们调查了这一事件在全球范围内的极端程度。将事件的相对强度描述为与平均值的标准差数，北美西部的热浪非常引人注目，超过了四个标准差。在全球范围内，我们有可靠的数据，自1960年以来，只有其他五次热浪被发现比这更极端。我们发现，在再分析和气候预估中，极端事件的统计分布随着时间的推移而增加，与气候变化引起的分布平均位移一致。碰巧最近没有发生极端热浪的地区可能对可能即将发生的事件准备不足。比2021年6月北美西部事件更严重的极端高温事件以前在其他地方发生过。
In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that the event was extreme, it is not obvious whether other areas in the world have also experienced events so far outside their natural variability. Using a novel assessment of heat extremes, we investigate how extreme this event was in the global context. Characterizing the relative intensity of an event as the number of standard deviations from the mean, the western North America heat wave is remarkable, coming in at over four standard deviations. Throughout the globe, where we have reliable data, only five other heat waves were found to be more extreme since 1960. We find that in both reanalyses and climate projections, the statistical distribution of extremes increases through time, in line with the distribution mean shift due to climate change. Regions that, by chance, have not had a recent extreme heat wave may be less prepared for potentially imminent events. Heat extremes greater than the June 2021 western North America event have previously occurred elsewhere.
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