Cancer mortality in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2025.
Cancer mortality in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2025.
复制标题
英国的癌症死亡率：2025年的预测。
DOI：
10.1038/sj.bjc.6604710
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发表时间：
2008-11-04
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Sasieni, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Olsen, A. H.;Parkin, D. M.;Sasieni, P.
本研究的目的是根据 1971-2005 年观察到的死亡率趋势，预测 2006-2025 年英国 21 种主要癌症的死亡率，并估计预期死亡的影响。年龄-时期-队列模型被应用于官方统计。预计从 2003 年到 2023 年，所有癌症的年龄标准化死亡率男性将下降 17%，女性将下降 16%。预计大多数癌症部位未来的死亡率都会下降。在男性中，口腔癌、食道癌和黑色素瘤的死亡率预计将小幅上升，而肝癌的死亡率预计将大幅上升（20 年内增加 14%）。在女性中，唯一预计的增加（18%）是子宫体。大多数癌症的死亡人数将会增加，男性所有癌症的死亡人数预计将增加 30%，女性预计将增加 12%。自 1990 年以来，英国整体癌症死亡率一直在下降，预计这种下降趋势将持续到未来，而且大多数癌症的男女死亡率都会下降。大多数癌症的实际死亡人数将会增加。
The purpose of this study was to project mortality rates in the United Kingdom for the period 2006–2025 for 21 major cancers on the basis of the observed trends in mortality rates during 1971–2005, and to estimate the implication in terms of expected deaths. Age-period-cohort models were applied to official statistics. The projected decrease in age-standardised mortality rates for all cancers from 2003 to 2023 was 17% in men and 16% in women. Future mortality rates were projected to decline for most cancer sites. In men, there were small projected increases in mortality rates from cancers of the oral cavity, oesophagus and melanoma, with a larger projected increase (14% over 20 years) in mortality of liver cancer. In women, the only projected increase (18%) was for corpus uteri. The numbers of deaths will increase for most cancers, with a 30% increase in all cancers projected for men and a 12% increase projected for women. Mortality rates from cancer as a whole have been falling in the United Kingdom since 1990, and this decline was projected to continue into the future as well as the declining rates in both sexes for most cancers. Actual numbers of deaths will increase for most cancers.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Moller, B;Fekjær, H;Haldorsen, T
通讯作者：
Haldorsen, T
英格兰癌症的未来负担：2020年的发病率和新患者人数。
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Moller, H;Fairley, L;Coupland, V;Okello, C;Green, M;Forman, D;Moller, B;Bray, F
通讯作者：
Bray, F
DOI：
10.1080/135952201317080698
发表时间：
2001-01-01
期刊：
Journal of epidemiology and biostatistics
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bashir, S A;Esteve, J
通讯作者：
Esteve, J