The interactive roles of Aedes aegypti super-production and human density in dengue transmission.
The interactive roles of Aedes aegypti super-production and human density in dengue transmission.
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埃及伊蚊超级繁殖与人类密度在登革热传播中的交互作用。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0001799
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Galvani A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Padmanabha H;Durham D;Correa F;Diuk-Wasser M;Galvani A
在登革热流行地区，埃及伊蚊的产量和人的密度可能差别很大。了解这些因素之间的相互作用如何影响传播风险，可提高病媒控制资源分配的有效性。为了评估埃及伊蚊产量变化和人类密度变化的综合影响，我们将现场数据与模拟建模相结合。利用2007-2009年7次埃及伊蚊蛹普查数据和人口调查数据，我们在哥伦比亚亚美尼亚16个登革热流行城市“斑块”（每个城市1-3个街区）建立了一个基于媒介的登革热传播周期传播模型。我们的现场数据显示，92%的蛹集中在5%的房屋中，这些房屋被定义为超级生产者。平均继发感染（R0）依赖于不常见但高度爆炸性的传播事件。这些超级传播事件几乎只发生在引入的感染者感染了在超级多产容器中生产的蚊子时。增加的人口密度有利于R0，当将人类引入病毒的可能性纳入风险时，病媒产生与人口密度之间出现了强烈的相互作用。在人口密度较高的情况下，超级高产容器的模拟干预在降低登革热风险方面更为有效。这些结果表明，在登革热传播动态中，人口密度与埃及伊蚊的自然调节模式之间存在显著的相互作用。超级高产容器的巨大流行病学意义表明，它们有可能影响登革热病毒对蚊子的适应。人口密度在登革热传播中起主要作用，因为它对人类a型病毒有潜在影响。与埃及伊蚊的接触，包括在家中和拜访他人时。典型登革热流行城市人口密度的巨大差异表明，这应成为登革热控制政策的主要考虑因素。在城市登革热系统中，媒介蚊子埃及伊蚊（Aedes aegypti）的生活史主要在人类住宅内部和周围传播。在这项研究中，我们将来自哥伦比亚一个流行城市的实地数据整合到一个模拟模型中，以评估埃及伊蚊产量和家庭人口密度的自然变化如何影响登革热传播。与传统模型相反，我们发现登革热的基本繁殖率（Ro）更可能与人口密度呈正相关。此外，埃及伊蚊生产的自然调控模式（少数高产菌株主导媒介招募）导致了“超级传播”模式，即绝大多数病毒引入不会产生继发感染，而Ro依赖于散发的、高度爆炸性的传播事件。这些事件依赖于引入的具有传染性的人感染蚊子，这些蚊子是在超级多产的容器中产生的。当将人类传播的可能性纳入我们的风险指标时，人类密度与埃及伊蚊超级生产之间出现了重要的相互作用，因此，在人口密度较高的地区，清除这些容器对减少登革热的影响要大得多。这些结果表明，了解人口密度、社会互动和埃及伊蚊自然调节模式之间的相互作用可以改进登革热控制工作的设计。
A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling. Using data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007–2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban ‘patches’ (1–3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R0) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R0, and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities. These results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person's home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy. In the urban dengue system the life history of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, transpires mainly inside and around human residences. In this study we integrated field data from an endemic city of Colombia into a simulation model to assess how natural variation in A. aegypti production and household human density influence dengue transmission. Contrary to traditional models, we show that the basic reproductive rate of dengue (Ro) is more likely to be positively correlated with human density. Moreover, the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti production, where a few super-productive houses dominate vector recruitment, caused a "super-spreading" pattern, whereby the large majority of viral introductions did not generate secondary infections, and Ro depended on sporadic, highly explosive transmission events. These events were dependent on the introduced infectious human infecting mosquitoes produced in super-productive vessels. When the likelihood of human introduction was incorporated into our risk indicator, a significant interaction emerged between human density and A. aegypti super production, such that removal of these containers had a much larger impact on reducing dengue in areas of higher human density. These results show that knowledge of interactions between human population density, social interactions and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti can improve the design of dengue control efforts.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2003.12.019
发表时间：
2004-12-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Codeço, CT;Luz, PM;Struchiner, CJ
通讯作者：
Struchiner, CJ
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Aldstadt, Jared;Koenraadt, Constantianus J. M.;Scott, Thomas W.
通讯作者：
Scott, Thomas W.
DOI：
10.2471/blt.09.067892
发表时间：
2010-03-01
期刊：
Bulletin of the World Health Organization: International Journal of Public Health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Arunachalam, Natarajan;Tana, Susilowati;Petzold, Max
通讯作者：
Petzold, Max
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2003.69.494
发表时间：
2003-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Getis, A;Morrison, AC;Scott, TW
通讯作者：
Scott, TW
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.1995.53.489
发表时间：
1995-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
FOCKS, DA;DANIELS, E;KEESLING, JE
通讯作者：
KEESLING, JE