Japan's voluntary lockdown: further evidence based on age-specific mobile location data.
Japan's voluntary lockdown: further evidence based on age-specific mobile location data.
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DOI：
10.1007/s42973-021-00077-9
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yabu T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Watanabe T;Yabu T
COVID-19大流行期间人们行为的变化可以被视为两种效应的结果：“干预效应”（政府命令人们改变行为导致的变化）和“信息效应”（人们根据有关大流行的信息自愿改变行为）。使用特定年龄的移动位置数据，我们研究了不同年龄组的干预和信息效果的差异。我们的主要发现如下。首先，干预效果的年龄分布表明，老年人不外出的程度比年轻人小，他们患重病和死亡的风险更高。其次，信息效应的年龄分布表明，人们在周末和假期呆在家里的程度倾向于随着年龄的增长而增加。因此，虽然Acemoglu等人提出了有针对性的封锁，要求对老年群体采取更严格的封锁政策，以保护那些面临严重疾病和死亡高风险的人群，但我们的研究结果表明，日本政府的干预产生了非常不同的效果，因为它主要减少了年轻人的外出，而导致高风险老年群体被隔离的是人们对大流行信息的自愿反应。第三，自2020年夏季以来，信息效应呈下降趋势。这在年轻人中相对更为明显，因此信息效应的年龄剖面仍然是向上倾斜的。
Changes in people’s behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic can be regarded as the result of two types of effects: the “intervention effect” (changes resulting from government orders for people to change their behavior) and the “information effect” (voluntary changes in people’s behavior based on information about the pandemic). Using age-specific mobile location data, we examine how the intervention and information effects differ across age groups. Our main findings are as follows. First, the age profile of the intervention effect shows that the degree to which people refrained from going out was smaller for older age groups, who are at a higher risk of serious illness and death, than for younger age groups. Second, the age profile of the information effect shows that the degree to which people stayed at home tended to increase with age for weekends and holidays. Thus, while Acemoglu et al. proposed targeted lockdowns requiring stricter lockdown policies for the oldest group in order to protect those at a high risk of serious illness and death, our findings suggest that Japan’s government intervention had a very different effect in that it primarily reduced outings by the young, and what led to the quarantining of older groups at higher risk instead was people’s voluntary response to information about the pandemic. Third, the information effect has been on a downward trend since the summer of 2020. It is relatively more pronounced among the young, so that the age profile of the information effect remains upward sloping.
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