Growth patterns and scaling laws governing AIDS epidemic in Brazilian cities.
Growth patterns and scaling laws governing AIDS epidemic in Brazilian cities.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0111015
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Mendes Rdos S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Antonio FJ;de Picoli S Jr;Teixeira JJ;Mendes Rdos S
巴西是第一个实施大规模艾滋病控制和干预计划的发展中国家，约占中、南美洲艾滋病（获得性免疫缺陷综合症）感染者的三分之一。在这种情况下，我们调查的时间演变和艾滋病流行在巴西的现状。具体而言，我们分析了巴西5000多个城市感染前33年的年度绝对病例频率记录。结果表明：在艾滋病传播的最初几年，年绝对频率呈指数增长，实际再生产数量呈幂律衰减，城市间年绝对频率分布呈幂律衰减，年绝对频率与人口数量呈异速生长关系;（5）各城市年绝对频率的时间演变具有不同的轮廓。这些研究结果产生了一个一般性的定量描述艾滋病感染的动态在巴西，因为开始。它们还提供了有关治疗和控制感染方案有效性的线索，这些方案根据城市居民的数量产生了不同的影响。在这个框架中，我们的研究结果提供了对艾滋病流行的整体动态的见解，这可能有助于选择经验上准确的模型。
Brazil holds approximately 1/3 of population living infected with AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) in Central and South Americas, and it was also the first developing country to implement a large-scale control and intervention program against AIDS epidemic. In this scenario, we investigate the temporal evolution and current status of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil. Specifically, we analyze records of annual absolute frequency of cases for more than 5000 cities for the first 33 years of the infection in Brazil. We found that (i) the annual absolute frequencies exhibit a logistic-type growth with an exponential regime in the first few years of the AIDS spreading; (ii) the actual reproduction number decaying as a power law; (iii) the distribution of the annual absolute frequencies among cities decays with a power law behavior; (iv) the annual absolute frequencies and the number of inhabitants have an allometric relationship; (v) the temporal evolution of the annual absolute frequencies have different profile depending on the average annual absolute frequencies in the cities. These findings yield a general quantitative description of the AIDS infection dynamics in Brazil since the beginning. They also provide clues about the effectiveness of treatment and control programs against the infection, that has had a different impact depending on the number of inhabitants of cities. In this framework, our results give insights into the overall dynamics of AIDS epidemic, which may contribute to select empirically accurate models.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Lipsitch, M;Cohen, T;Murray, M
通讯作者：
Murray, M
影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2005.11.038
发表时间：
2006-07-15
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3.3
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3.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
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