Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.
Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0167712
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Tallo VL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kamigaki T;Chaw L;Tan AG;Tamaki R;Alday PP;Javier JB;Olveda RM;Oshitani H;Tallo VL
流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）的季节性是众所周知的，在温带国家进行了许多分析;然而，在热带国家仍然没有很好地了解这一点。以前的研究表明，气候因素与这些病毒的季节性有关。然而，每个气候变量的影响程度尚待确定。我们调查了不同纬度三个地点的季节性模式和气候变量对流感和RSV的影响：菲律宾的东米沙鄢地区和碧瑶市，以及日本的冲绳县。应用小波分析和动态线性回归模型。分析中使用的气候变量包括平均温度、相对湿度和比湿度、降水量和雨天数。使用每个模型中估计的Akaike信息标准来检验与基线模型相比的拟合改善。在所有三个研究中心，观察到甲型流感和RSV的年度季节性峰值;乙型流感B的峰值尚不清楚。在两个菲律宾网站的气候变量的范围较窄，平均变量显着不同的三个网站。而所有的气候变量，除了雨天的数量改进模型适合当地的趋势模型，他们的贡献是适度的。菲律宾研究中心的平均温度和比湿度与流感和呼吸道合胞病毒呈正相关，而与冲绳的甲型流感呈负相关。降水还改善了菲律宾两个研究中心流感和RSV的模型拟合，但东米沙鄢群岛的甲型流感模型除外。在所有三个研究中心，观察到甲型流感和RSV的年度季节性高峰，但乙型流感B不太清楚。纳入随后更多年份的额外数据将有助于确定这些调查结果。气候变量的年度幅度和变化比它们的绝对值更重要，以确定它们对流感和RSV季节性的影响。
The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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