Global risk of heat stress to cattle from climate change
Global risk of heat stress to cattle from climate change
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气候变化对牛造成的全球热应激风险
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aceb79
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Trisos, Christopher H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
North, Michelle A;Franke, James A;Ouweneel, Birgitt;Trisos, Christopher H
养牛业是全球粮食生产和生计的主要来源，但正受到气候变化的影响。然而，尽管有大量研究报告了局部尺度的热影响，但量化气候变化对牛造成的全球热应激风险仍然具有挑战性。我们利用164条记录对全球记录的牛热应激进行了综合，以确定与产量下降和死亡率增加相关的温度-湿度条件，然后预测未来温室气体排放和土地利用决策将如何限制或加剧热应激，并绘制了全球地图。对牛产生负面影响的中位数阈值为温湿度指数68.8 （95% ci: 67.3-70.7）。目前，全球近80%的牛每年至少有30天暴露在超过这一阈值的环境中。当全球变暖超过4°C时，温带地区每年出现180天以上的热应激，到2100年，全年热应激将扩展到所有热带地区。将全球变暖限制在2°C，将180天的热应激扩展到亚热带地区。在所有情况下，热应激的严重程度在热带地区增加最多，从而降低了全球牛奶产量。未来的土地使用决策是风险的重要驱动因素。在低环境保护情景下（SSP3-RCP7.0），预计热带地区（特别是亚马逊河流域、刚果盆地和印度）养牛业扩张最大，预计热应激增加最多。与2010年相比，到2090年，这些地区将有超过5亿头牛面临严重的高温风险。在资源密集度较低、环境保护程度较高的情景（SSP1-RCP2.6）下，亚洲、南美和非洲的牛热风险分别降低至少50%、63%和84%。这些结果突出表明，在热带森林地区扩大养牛生产的社会选择是不可持续的，既加剧了气候变化，又使数以亿计的牛面临全年严重热应激的大幅增加。
Cattle farming is a major source of global food production and livelihoods that is being impacted by climate change. However, despite numerous studies reporting local-scale heat impacts, quantifying the global risk of heat stress to cattle from climate change remains challenging. We conducted a global synthesis of documented heat stress for cattle using 164 records to identify temperature-humidity conditions associated with decreased production and increased mortality, then projected how future greenhouse gas emissions and land-use decisions will limit or exacerbate heat stress, and mapped this globally. The median threshold for the onset of negative impacts on cattle was a temperature-humidity index of 68.8 (95% C.I.: 67.3–70.7). Currently, almost 80% of cattle globally are exposed to conditions exceeding this threshold for at least 30 days a year. For global warming above 4°C, heat stress of over 180 days per year emerges in temperate regions, and year-round heat stress expands across all tropical regions by 2100. Limiting global warming to 2°C, limits expansion of 180 days of heat stress to sub-tropical regions. In all scenarios, severity of heat stress increases most in tropical regions, reducing global milk yields. Future land-use decisions are an important driver of risk. Under a low environmental protection scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0), the greatest expansion of cattle farming is projected for tropical regions (especially Amazon, Congo Basin, and India), where heat stress is projected to increase the most. This would expose over 500 million more cattle in these regions to severe heat risk by 2090 compared to 2010. A less resource-intensive and higher environmental protection scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) reduces heat risk for cattle by at least 50% in Asia, 63% in South America, and 84% in Africa. These results highlight how societal choices that expand cattle production in tropical forest regions are unsustainable, both worsening climate change and exposing hundreds of millions more cattle to large increases in severe, year-round heat stress.
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影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Bollongino, Ruth;Burger, Joachim;Thomas, Mark G.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Mark G.
确定热应激起始水平对土耳其布尔萨市荷斯坦奶牛日产奶量的影响
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Duru
通讯作者：
S. Duru
持久的环境发展留置权： -EN- 畜牧生产、环境和可持续发展之间的联系 -FR- -ES- Vínculos entre ganadería, medioambite y desarrollo sostenible
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Pradère
通讯作者：
J. Pradère
影响因子：
0.8
作者：
Rust, J.M.;Rust, T.
通讯作者：
Rust, T.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Eyring, Veronika;Bony, Sandrine;Taylor, Karl E.
通讯作者：
Taylor, Karl E.