Bayesian kernel machine regression-causal mediation analysis.
Bayesian kernel machine regression-causal mediation analysis.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/sim.9255
复制
发表时间：
2022-02-28
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Valeri, Linda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Devick, Katrina L.;Bobb, Jennifer F.;Mazumdar, Maitreyi;Henn, Birgit Claus;Bellinger, David C.;Christiani, David C.;Wright, Robert O.;Williams, Paige L.;Coull, Brent A.;Valeri, Linda
更好地了解环境混合物的作用途径对于设计有效的干预措施十分重要。我们提出了一种新的方法来估计自然的直接和间接影响，并通过一个中介变量控制的直接影响的复杂的混合物暴露的结果。我们实现贝叶斯核机器回归（BKMR），以允许所有可能的相互作用和非线性效应（1）共同暴露对中介，（2）共同暴露和中介对结果，以及（3）选定的协变量对中介和/或结果。从后验预测分布的中介和结果，我们模拟反事实，以获得后验样本，估计，和可信区间的中介效果。我们的模拟研究表明，当确定性-中介和确定性-中介-结果关系复杂时，BKMR-因果中介分析比现有的中介方法表现得更好。我们应用我们的方法来量化的贡献，出生长度之间的中介在子宫内共同暴露于砷，锰和铅，儿童的神经发育评分，在孟加拉国的一个前瞻性的出生队列。在年龄较小的儿童中，我们发现金属混合物和神经发育之间存在负（不利）关联。我们还发现，出生长度介导暴露于金属混合物对幼儿神经发育的影响。如果将出生身长固定在第75百分位值，则金属混合物对神经发育的有害影响减弱，这表明有助于增加胎儿生长的营养干预，从而增加出生身长，可能会阻止金属混合物对神经发育的有害影响。
Greater understanding of the pathways through which an environmental mixture operates is important to design effective interventions. We present new methodology to estimate natural direct and indirect effects and controlled direct effects of a complex mixture exposure on an outcome through a mediator variable. We implement Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) to allow for all possible interactions and nonlinear effects of (1) the co-exposures on the mediator, (2) the co-exposures and mediator on the outcome, and (3) selected covariates on the mediator and/or outcome. From the posterior predictive distributions of the mediator and outcome, we simulate counterfactuals to obtain posterior samples, estimates, and credible intervals of the mediation effects. Our simulation study demonstrates that when the exposure-mediator and exposure-mediator-outcome relationships are complex, BKMR–Causal Mediation Analysis performs better than current mediation methods. We applied our methodology to quantify the contribution of birth length as a mediator between in utero co-exposure to arsenic, manganese and lead, and children’s neurodevelopmental scores, in a prospective birth cohort in Bangladesh. Among younger children, we found a negative (adverse) association between the metal mixture and neurodevelopment. We also found evidence that birth length mediates the effect of exposure to the metal mixture on neurodevelopment for younger children. If birth length were fixed to its 75th percentile value, the harmful effect of the metal mixture on neurodevelopment is attenuated, suggesting nutritional interventions to help increase fetal growth, and thus birth length, could potentially block the harmful effect of the metal mixture on neurodevelopment.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
7.6
作者：
BARON, RM;KENNY, DA
通讯作者：
KENNY, DA
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Claus Henn B;Schnaas L;Ettinger AS;Schwartz J;Lamadrid-Figueroa H;Hernández-Avila M;Amarasiriwardena C;Hu H;Bellinger DC;Wright RO;Téllez-Rojo MM
通讯作者：
Téllez-Rojo MM
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Valeri L;Mazumdar MM;Bobb JF;Claus Henn B;Rodrigues E;Sharif OIA;Kile ML;Quamruzzaman Q;Afroz S;Golam M;Amarasiriwardena C;Bellinger DC;Christiani DC;Coull BA;Wright RO
通讯作者：
Wright RO
影响因子：
7
作者：
Imai, Kosuke;Keele, Luke;Tingley, Dustin
通讯作者：
Tingley, Dustin
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Claus Henn B;Coull BA;Wright RO
通讯作者：
Wright RO