What if we never run out of oil? From certainty of "peak oil" to "peak demand".
What if we never run out of oil? From certainty of "peak oil" to "peak demand".
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DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2021.102407
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发表时间：
2022-03
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Staffell, Iain
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Halttunen, Krista;Slade, Raphael;Staffell, Iain
COVID-19疫情令石油行业陷入自上世纪70年代以来从未有过的动荡。尽管该行业似乎正在复苏，但对于疫情在多大程度上为该行业的可能未来提供了一丝曙光，仍存在疑问。这一未来对于减缓气候变化的成功至关重要，这需要大幅减少使用石油作为能源的二氧化碳排放。因此，考虑未来全球石油需求达到峰值然后下降以及需求持续增长的情景是有意义的。这与石油需求的历史发展以及几十年来关于“石油峰值”的主要讨论和对需求超过现成供应的恐惧有很大的不同。石油需求达到峰值的影响将是巨大的，不仅对石油工业，而且对整个社会。人们对影响会是什么以及如何为它们做好准备还没有足够的了解。研究界需要对石油的潜在未来有一个清晰的认识，包括考虑需求长期下降的情况。
The COVID-19 pandemic sent the oil industry into turmoil on a scale not seen since the 1970s. While the sector appears to be recovering, questions remain about the extent to which the pandemic has offered a glimpse into the possible future of the industry. This future is critical to the success of climate change mitigation, which requires significant cuts to the carbon dioxide emissions from using oil for energy. Therefore, it makes sense to consider future scenarios in which global oil demand peaks and then declines alongside scenarios of continued demand growth. This is a significant departure from historical development of oil demand and the dominant discussion of many decades about “peak oil” and the fear of demand outstripping readily available supply. The implications of peaking oil demand would be massive, not only for the oil industry but also for society as whole. There is not enough understanding of what the impacts would be, or how to prepare for them. The research community needs to take a clear-eyed view of potential futures of oil, which includes considering scenarios in which demand goes into long-term decline.
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