Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways.
Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways.
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DOI：
10.1186/1743-8977-6-19
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发表时间：
2009-07-24
影响因子：
10
通讯作者：
Hoek G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Knol AB;de Hartog JJ;Boogaard H;Slottje P;van der Sluijs JP;Lebret E;Cassee FR;Wardekker JA;Ayres JG;Borm PJ;Brunekreef B;Donaldson K;Forastiere F;Holgate ST;Kreyling WG;Nemery B;Pekkanen J;Stone V;Wichmann HE;Hoek G
暴露于细微的环境颗粒物（PM）一直与发病率和死亡率的增加。暴露于超细颗粒（UFP）和健康影响之间的关系不太确定。如果UFP独立于较粗的部分引起健康影响，这可能会影响空气污染的健康影响评估，这可能会导致考虑其他政策选择，以减少PM的疾病负担。因此，我们组织了一个专家启发研讨会，以评估暴露于超微粒子和健康终点之间的因果关系的证据。对环境超细颗粒暴露的健康影响进行了专家启发，重点是：1）与关键健康终点因果关系的可能性，以及2）心脏事件潜在因果途径的可能性。根据系统的同行提名程序，14名欧洲专家（流行病学家，毒理学家和临床医生）被选中，其中12人参加。向他们提供了一本载有重要文献的简报。在小组讨论之后，采用一种从政府间气候变化专门委员会使用的置信度方案改编而来的置信度方案，以因果关系和途径的可能性评级的形式获得了个别专家的判断。大多数专家将短期超微粒子暴露增加与全因死亡率增加、因心血管和呼吸系统疾病住院、哮喘症状加重和肺功能下降之间独立因果关系的可能性评为中等至高。长期暴露于超微粒子与全因死亡率、心血管和呼吸道疾病发病率以及肺癌之间存在因果关系的可能性被评定为略低，大多为中等。专家们分别对六种可能的因果关系中的每一种的可能性进行了评级。在这6个中，涉及呼吸道炎症和随后血栓形成效应的途径的可能性最高。UFP暴露对健康影响的因果关系的总体中至高可能性评级和至少一种解释UFP与心脏事件之间关联的拟议因果机制的高可能性评级强调了在未来（与运输相关的）空气污染的健康影响评估中考虑UFP的重要性，以及进一步研究UFP暴露和健康影响的必要性。
Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM) has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from coarser fractions, this could affect health impact assessment of air pollution, which would possibly lead to alternative policy options to be considered to reduce the disease burden of PM. Therefore, we organized an expert elicitation workshop to assess the evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to UFP and health endpoints. An expert elicitation on the health effects of ambient ultrafine particle exposure was carried out, focusing on: 1) the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2) the likelihood of potential causal pathways for cardiac events. Based on a systematic peer-nomination procedure, fourteen European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians) were selected, of whom twelve attended. They were provided with a briefing book containing key literature. After a group discussion, individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The likelihood of an independent causal relationship between increased short-term UFP exposure and increased all-cause mortality, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, aggravation of asthma symptoms and lung function decrements was rated medium to high by most experts. The likelihood for long-term UFP exposure to be causally related to all cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and lung cancer was rated slightly lower, mostly medium. The experts rated the likelihood of each of the six identified possible causal pathways separately. Out of these six, the highest likelihood was rated for the pathway involving respiratory inflammation and subsequent thrombotic effects. The overall medium to high likelihood rating of causality of health effects of UFP exposure and the high likelihood rating of at least one of the proposed causal mechanisms explaining associations between UFP and cardiac events, stresses the importance of considering UFP in future health impact assessments of (transport-related) air pollution, and the need for further research on UFP exposure and health effects.
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超铁颗粒在空气颗粒质量与心血管健康之间关联中的潜在作用。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Delfino RJ;Sioutas C;Malik S
通讯作者：
Malik S
DOI：
10.1164/rccm.200412-1726oc
发表时间：
2005-12-15
影响因子：
24.7
作者：
Forastiere, F;Stafoggia, M;Perucci, CA
通讯作者：
Perucci, CA
DOI：
10.1089/089426802320282310
发表时间：
2002-06-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF AEROSOL MEDICINE-DEPOSITION CLEARANCE AND EFFECTS IN THE LUNG
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ibald-Mulli, A;Wichmann, HE;Peters, A
通讯作者：
Peters, A
人类受试者的个人暴露于亚微米颗粒和心率变异性。
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Chan, Chang-Chuan;Chuang, Kai-Jen;Shiao, Guang-Ming;Lin, Lian-Yu
通讯作者：
Lin, Lian-Yu
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Beelen R;Hoek G;van den Brandt PA;Goldbohm RA;Fischer P;Schouten LJ;Jerrett M;Hughes E;Armstrong B;Brunekreef B
通讯作者：
Brunekreef B