Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City.
Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City.
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在理想城市的密集室内接触网络中，建造通风作为有效的疾病干预策略。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0162481
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Li Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao X;Wei J;Lei H;Xu P;Cowling BJ;Li Y
在新疫苗问世之前，新出现的疾病可能会通过密集而大型的城市接触网络迅速传播，特别是通过空气传播。当人们访问不同的室内环境并与他人频繁接触时，空气传播的疾病可能会迅速传播。我们为一个拥有 700 万人口和 300 万个室内空间的理想城市构建了一个简单的室内接触模型，并估计了一天内任意两个人之间接触的概率和持续时间。为此，我们使用香港实际人口普查、社会行为调查、建筑调查和通风测量的数据来定义八个人口组和七个室内位置组。我们的室内接触模型与现有的流行病学易感、暴露、传染和恢复 (SEIR) 模型相集成，以估计疾病传播，并与 Wells-Riley 方程相集成，以计算局部感染风险，从而形成了集成的室内传播网络模型。该模型用于估计感染者感染城市中其他人的概率并研究疾病传播动态。我们预测了在假设的空气传播疾病爆发的情况下，每种地点类型的不同通风系统下每个亚群的感染概率，假设这种疾病与天花具有相同的自然史和传染性。我们将每种地点类型的通风控制与其他干预策略的有效性进行了比较。我们的结论是，在大城市中，使用教室、办公室和家庭自然通风等方法提高建筑通风率是针对空气传播疾病的相对有效的策略。
Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks, especially they are transmitted by the airborne route, before new vaccines can be made available. Airborne diseases may spread rapidly as people visit different indoor environments and are in frequent contact with others. We constructed a simple indoor contact model for an ideal city with 7 million people and 3 million indoor spaces, and estimated the probability and duration of contact between any two individuals during one day. To do this, we used data from actual censuses, social behavior surveys, building surveys, and ventilation measurements in Hong Kong to define eight population groups and seven indoor location groups. Our indoor contact model was integrated with an existing epidemiological Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate disease spread and with the Wells-Riley equation to calculate local infection risks, resulting in an integrated indoor transmission network model. This model was used to estimate the probability of an infected individual infecting others in the city and to study the disease transmission dynamics. We predicted the infection probability of each sub-population under different ventilation systems in each location type in the case of a hypothetical airborne disease outbreak, which is assumed to have the same natural history and infectiousness as smallpox. We compared the effectiveness of controlling ventilation in each location type with other intervention strategies. We conclude that increasing building ventilation rates using methods such as natural ventilation in classrooms, offices, and homes is a relatively effective strategy for airborne diseases in a large city.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1997.0131
发表时间：
1997-07-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Edmunds, WJ;OCallaghan, CJ;Nokes, DJ
通讯作者：
Nokes, DJ
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Chen, S-C.;Chang, C-F.;Liao, C-M.
通讯作者：
Liao, C-M.
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Gao, Xiaolei;Wei, Jianjian;Li, Yuguo
通讯作者：
Li, Yuguo
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Moore, C;Newman, MEJ
通讯作者：
Newman, MEJ
DOI：
10.1038/sj.jea.7500244
发表时间：
2002-11-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Leech, JA;Nelson, WC;Raizenne, ME
通讯作者：
Raizenne, ME