Re-parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search.
Re-parameterization of a mathematical model of African horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search.
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使用系统文献检索数据对非洲马瘟病毒数学模型进行重新参数化。
DOI：
10.1111/tbed.14420
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发表时间：
2022-07
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Daly, Janet M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fairbanks, Emma L.;Brennan, Marnie L.;Mertens, Peter P. C.;Tildesley, Michael J.;Daly, Janet M.
非洲马病（AHS）是一种病媒传播疾病，由库蠓传播，在撒哈拉以南非洲流行。中东、亚洲和欧洲有许多历史上和最近爆发疫情的例子。然而，对这些幼稚人群的感染动态和爆发潜力知之甚少。为了更好地为先前发表的常微分方程模型提供信息，我们进行了系统的文献检索，以确定在疫苗接种试验中记录未接种（对照）马驹实验性感染的研究。提取了未出生马驹实验感染后病毒血症发生时间、临床症状和死亡时间以及病毒血症持续时间的数据。出现病毒血症的时间为4.6天，出现临床症状的时间为4.9天，比先前估计的潜伏期3.7天要长。死亡/被安乐死或存活动物的感染期分别为3.9天和8.7天，而先前的估计分别为4.4天和6天。病例病死率也高于以前的估计。更新的参数值（以及最近公布的其他文献估计值）导致宿主死亡人数增加，疫情持续时间缩短，病媒流行率提高。
African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector‐borne disease transmitted by Culicoides spp., endemic to sub‐Saharan Africa. There have been many examples of historic and recent outbreaks in the Middle East, Asia and Europe. However, not much is known about infection dynamics and outbreak potential in these naive populations. In order to better inform a previously published ordinary differential equation model, we performed a systematic literature search to identify studies documenting experimental infection of naive (control) equids in vaccination trials. Data on the time until the onset of viraemia, clinical signs and death after experimental infection of a naive equid and duration of viraemia were extracted. The time to viraemia was 4.6 days and the time to clinical signs was 4.9 days, longer than the previously estimated latent period of 3.7 days. The infectious periods of animals that died/were euthanized or survived were found to be 3.9 and 8.7 days, whereas previous estimations were 4.4 and 6 days, respectively. The case fatality was also found to be higher than previous estimations. The updated parameter values (along with other more recently published estimates from literature) resulted in an increase in the number of host deaths, decrease in the duration of the outbreak and greater prevalence in vectors.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Bachanek-Bankowska K;Maan S;Castillo-Olivares J;Manning NM;Maan NS;Potgieter AC;Di Nardo A;Sutton G;Batten C;Mertens PP
通讯作者：
Mertens PP
关于施马伦贝格病毒在农场内部和农场之间传播的推论。
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Gubbins S;Turner J;Baylis M;van der Stede Y;van Schaik G;Abrahantes JC;Wilson AJ
通讯作者：
Wilson AJ
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Alberca, Berta;Bachanek-Bankowska, Katarzyna;Cabana, Marta;Calvo-Pinilla, Eva;Viaplana, Elisenda;Frost, Lorraine;Gubbins, Simon;Urniza, Alicia;Mertens, Peter;Castillo-Olivares, Javier
通讯作者：
Castillo-Olivares, Javier
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Guthrie, Alan J.;Quan, Melvyn;MacLachlan, N. James
通讯作者：
MacLachlan, N. James
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Darpel KE;Monaghan P;Simpson J;Anthony SJ;Veronesi E;Brooks HW;Elliott H;Brownlie J;Takamatsu HH;Mellor PS;Mertens PP
通讯作者：
Mertens PP