Climate drives coupled regime shifts across subtropical estuarine ecosystems.
Climate drives coupled regime shifts across subtropical estuarine ecosystems.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2121654119
复制
发表时间：
2022-08-16
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
气候变化正在以突然、不可预测的方式重塑整个生态系统，但由于生态系统之间不可预见的耦合因素，本世纪可能发生更迅速的变化。我们遵循的命运牡蛎礁超过82年，在日益热带河口，并提供经验支持级联政权的变化驱动的气候。我们发现的证据表明，快速和加速牡蛎礁红树林岛屿转换后，气候释放严重的冬季冻结和邻近的沼泽到红树林过渡。如果繁殖体供应与变暖的步伐保持一致，我们预计管理人员将面临困难的选择，是否接受，防止或修改快速，全生态系统的变化，在亚热带河口本世纪由于不可预见的耦合沼泽红树林和牡蛎礁红树林政权的转变。随着气候变化在具有耦合要素的生态系统中传播级联效应，预计本世纪生态制度的转变将增加。在这里，我们表明，气候驱动的盐沼，以红树林过渡不会孤立地发生，但与鲜为人知的牡蛎礁，以红树林制度的转变，通过提供红树林繁殖。利用82年的航空影像，我们发现83%的没有任何初始红树林覆盖的牡蛎礁完全转化为红树林岛，平均（± SD）转化时间为29.1 ± 9.6年。对红树林岛屿的实地评估表明，在转换过程中，生态系统结构发生了重大变化，而底层珊瑚礁形成的放射性碳年代测定表明，相对于数百年的珊瑚礁，这种转换是突然的。从低于红红树林（Rhizophora mangle）生理耐受极限（−7.3 °C）的冰冻中释放出来后，以及在邻近的沼泽转化为红树林后，发生了快速转变。还确定了其他非气候介导的生态系统变化驱动因素，包括牡蛎礁暴露于风力驱动的波浪。耦合的政权转移产生的红树林繁殖体从前面和相邻的沼泽到红树林转换的供应不断增长。佛罗里达海湾沿岸红树林范围限制附近的气候预测表明，如果繁殖体供应与预测的变暖保持同步，到2070年，政权转变将开始改变亚热带河口。虽然随着热带化，维持现存的牡蛎栖息地将变得越来越困难，但在高暴露环境中恢复牡蛎礁或积极清除红树林幼苗可以减缓气候变化的双重影响。
Climate change is reshaping entire ecosystems in sudden, unpredictable ways, but even more rapid change could occur this century due to unforeseen coupled elements between ecosystems. We follow the fate of oyster reefs over 82 y in an increasingly tropical estuary and provide empirical support for cascading regime shifts driven by climate. We find evidence of rapid and accelerating oyster reef–to–mangrove island conversion following climate release from severe winter freezes and adjacent marsh-to-mangrove transition. If propagule supply keeps pace with warming, we anticipate managers will face difficult choices on whether to accept, prevent, or modify rapid, landscape-wide ecosystem shifts in subtropical estuaries this century due to unforeseen coupling of marsh-to-mangrove and oyster reef–to–mangrove regime shifts. Ecological regime shifts are expected to increase this century as climate change propagates cascading effects across ecosystems with coupled elements. Here, we demonstrate that the climate-driven salt marsh–to–mangrove transition does not occur in isolation but is linked to lesser-known oyster reef–to–mangrove regime shifts through the provision of mangrove propagules. Using aerial imagery spanning 82 y, we found that 83% of oyster reefs without any initial mangrove cover fully converted to mangrove islands and that mean (± SD) time to conversion was 29.1 ± 9.6 y. In situ assessments of mangrove islands suggest substantial changes in ecosystem structure during conversion, while radiocarbon dates of underlying reef formation indicate that such transitions are abrupt relative to centuries-old reefs. Rapid transition occurred following release from freezes below the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) physiological tolerance limit (−7.3 °C) and after adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Additional nonclimate-mediated drivers of ecosystem change were also identified, including oyster reef exposure to wind-driven waves. Coupling of regime shifts arises from the growing supply of mangrove propagules from preceding and adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Climate projections near the mangrove range limit on the Gulf coast of Florida suggest that regime shifts will begin to transform subtropical estuaries by 2070 if propagule supply keeps pace with predicted warming. Although it will become increasingly difficult to maintain extant oyster habitat with tropicalization, restoring oyster reefs in high-exposure settings or active removal of mangrove seedlings could slow the coupled impacts of climate change shown here.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1315800111
发表时间：
2014-01-14
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Cavanaugh, Kyle C.;Kellner, James R.;Feller, Ilka C.
通讯作者：
Feller, Ilka C.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.2312
发表时间：
2012-04-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Abatzoglou, John T.;Brown, Timothy J.
通讯作者：
Brown, Timothy J.
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Biggs, Reinette;Peterson, Garry D.;Rocha, Juan C.
通讯作者：
Rocha, Juan C.
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Colden, Allison M.;Lipcius, Romuald N.
通讯作者：
Lipcius, Romuald N.
影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Graham, Nicholas A. J.;Bellwood, David R.;Nystrom, Magnus
通讯作者：
Nystrom, Magnus