Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China.
Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China.
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降雨量变化导致中国安徽省疟疾卷土重来
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0043686
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Cao WC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao HW;Wang LP;Liang S;Liu YX;Tong SL;Wang JJ;Li YP;Wang XF;Yang H;Ma JQ;Fang LQ;Cao WC
疟疾在中国安徽省经过十年的低流行水平后重新出现。自2000年以来，人间病例数迅速增加，并在2006年达到高峰。当年，疟疾病例占中国大陆总病例的54.5%。然而，人间病例的时空模式和重新出现的根本因素仍不清楚。我们建立了一个数据库，其中包含20年（1990-2009年）每月报告的疟疾病例和气象参数记录。采用斯皮尔曼相关分析方法，对安徽省北方、安徽省中部和安徽省南部3个地理区域的疟疾发病率与气象因素的关系进行了初步分析，并采用多项式分布滞后（PDL）时间序列回归分析方法，对气象因素对疟疾传播的贡献进行了分析。然后，进行了两年（2008-2009年）的预测，以验证PDL模型，通过使用1990年至2007年收集的数据创建。结果表明，90年代安徽省疟疾发病率呈下降趋势。然而，自2000年以来，北部的发病率急剧上升，而中部和南部的传播率仍保持在相对较低的水平。斯皮尔曼相关分析表明，疟疾月发病率与气温、降雨量、相对湿度和多元厄尔尼诺/南方涛动指数显着相关，所有三个地区的滞后时间为0-2个月。PDL模型显示，在所有三个地区，只有滞后1-2个月的降雨量与疟疾发病率显著相关。模型验证显示，在2年预测期内每月发病率的预测准确度很高。1990-2009年安徽省疟疾流行具有高度的空间异质性。降雨量的变化促使疟疾在安徽省北方重新出现。
Malaria is re-emerging in Anhui Province, China after a decade long’ low level of endemicity. The number of human cases has increased rapidly since 2000 and reached its peak in 2006. That year, the malaria cases accounted for 54.5% of total cases in mainland China. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of human cases and factors underlying the re-emergence remain unclear. We established a database containing 20 years’ (1990–2009) records of monthly reported malaria cases and meteorological parameters. Spearman correlations were used to assess the crude association between malaria incidence and meteorological variables, and a polynomial distributed lag (PDL) time-series regression was performed to examine contribution of meteorological factors to malaria transmission in three geographic regions (northern, mid and southern Anhui Province), respectively. Then, a two-year (2008–2009) prediction was performed to validate the PDL model that was created by using the data collected from 1990 to 2007. We found that malaria incidence decreased in Anhui Province in 1990s. However, the incidence has dramatically increased in the north since 2000, while the transmission has remained at a relatively low level in the mid and south. Spearman correlation analyses showed that the monthly incidences of malaria were significantly associated with temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation index with lags of 0–2 months in all three regions. The PDL model revealed that only rainfall with a 1–2 month lag was significantly associated with malaria incidence in all three regions. The model validation showed a high accuracy for the prediction of monthly incidence over a 2-year predictive period. Malaria epidemics showed a high spatial heterogeneity in Anhui Province during the 1990–2009 study periods. The change in rainfall drives the reemergence of malaria in the northern Anhui Province.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Le Menach, Arnaud;Tatem, Andrew J.;Cohen, Justin M.;Hay, Simon I.;Randell, Heather;Patil, Anand P.;Smith, David L.
通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0381
发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
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