Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar.
Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar.
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DOI：
10.1038/srep00093
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Smith, David L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Le Menach, Arnaud;Tatem, Andrew J.;Cohen, Justin M.;Hay, Simon I.;Randell, Heather;Patil, Anand P.;Smith, David L.
恶性疟原虫疟疾在桑给巴尔的流行率已达到历史最低点。改善控制需要量化疟疾输入率，确定高风险旅行者，并评估后续传播。对桑给巴尔进口率的估计是通过两种独立的方法计算的。首先，移动的电话使用数据和桑给巴尔和坦桑尼亚大陆之间的渡轮流量进行了重新分析，使用异质旅行风险模型。第二，输入和传输速率的动态数学模型。据估计，前往疟疾流行地区的桑给巴尔居民造成的输入性病例是受感染游客的1-15倍。疟疾输入率估计为每年每1 000名居民中有1.6人感染。据估计，大多数地方的当地传播率太低，无法维持传播。桑给巴尔的疟疾感染主要是由于输入性疟疾和随后的传播。通过实施以发现输入性疟疾病例和控制进一步传播为基础的控制措施，消除恶性疟原虫疟疾似乎是可行的。
The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying malaria importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission. Estimates of Zanzibar's importation rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data and ferry traffic between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania were re-analyzed using a model of heterogeneous travel risk. Second, a dynamic mathematical model of importation and transmission rates was used. Zanzibar residents traveling to malaria endemic regions were estimated to contribute 1–15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. The malaria importation rate was estimated to be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Local transmission was estimated too low to sustain transmission in most places. Malaria infections in Zanzibar largely result from imported malaria and subsequent transmission. Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination appears feasible by implementing control measures based on detecting imported malaria cases and controlling onward transmission.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Smith DL;Drakeley CJ;Chiyaka C;Hay SI
通讯作者：
Hay SI
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
malERA Consultative Group on Vaccines
通讯作者：
malERA Consultative Group on Vaccines
影响因子：
3
作者：
Smith DL;Hay SI
通讯作者：
Hay SI
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Smith DL;McKenzie FE;Snow RW;Hay SI
通讯作者：
Hay SI
影响因子：
3
作者：
Cohen JM;Moonen B;Snow RW;Smith DL
通讯作者：
Smith DL