Uncertainty in the Relationship between Criteria Pollutants and Low Birth Weight in Chicago.
Uncertainty in the Relationship between Criteria Pollutants and Low Birth Weight in Chicago.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.12.001
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发表时间：
2012-03-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Kumar, Naresh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kumar, Naresh
使用数据的所有活产（~ 40万）和标准污染物从芝加哥大都市统计区（MSA）在2000年和2004年之间，本文实证演示了如何在时空尺度的健康和空气污染数据的不匹配可能导致空气污染和出生结果之间的联系的不一致性和不确定性。本文认为，与空气污染暴露相关的低出生体重的风险变化显着的距离间隔（周围的监测站）用于暴露估计的变化。例如，当分析被限制在监测站的3英里距离内时，（出生时<2 500克）增加了1.045倍（±0.0285 95% CI），PM10平均日暴露量增加一个单位（微克/立方米）;当分析限制在空气污染监测站6英里范围内时，该值降至1.028。当控制混杂因素时，PM10暴露对LBW的影响变为零。但当控制混杂因素时，PM2.5暴露与低出生体重显着相关。这些结果必须谨慎解释，因为到监测站的距离并不影响不良出生结果的风险，但暴露的不确定性随着距离监测站的增加而增加，特别是对于在短距离和时间间隔内随重力沉降的粗颗粒物，如PM10。本文的研究结果对环境流行病学研究的研究设计，以及空气污染（以及潜在的其他环境）和健康数据的配置方式，以计算暴露具有重要意义。本文还呼吁对空气污染进行时空分辨估计，以尽量减少暴露估计中的不确定性。
Using the data on all live births (~400,000) and criteria pollutants from the Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) between 2000 and 2004, this paper empirically demonstrates how mismatches in the spatiotemporal scales of health and air pollution data can result in inconsistency and uncertainty in the linkages between air pollution and birth outcomes. This paper suggests that the risks of low birth weight associated with air pollution exposure changes significantly as the distance interval (around the monitoring stations) used for exposure estimation changes. For example, when the analysis was restricted within 3 miles distance of the monitoring stations the odds of LBW (births < 2500g) increased by a factor of 1.045 (±0.0285 95% CI) with a unit increase in the average daily exposure to PM10 (in μg/m3) during the gestation period; the value dropped to 1.028 when the analysis was restricted within 6 miles distance of air pollution monitoring stations. The effect of PM10 exposure on LBW became null when controlled for confounders. But PM2.5 exposure showed a significant association with low birth weight when controlled for confounders. These results must be interpreted with caution, because the distance to monitoring station does not influence the risks of adverse birth outcomes, but uncertainty in exposure increases with the increase in distance from the monitoring stations, especially for coarse particles such as PM10 that settle with gravity within short distance and time interval. The results of this paper have important implications for the research design of environmental epidemiological studies, and the way air pollution (and potentially other environmental) and health data are collocated to compute exposure. The paper also calls for time-space resolved estimate of air pollution to minimize uncertainty in exposure estimation.
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