Estimating COVID-19 mortality in Italy early in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Estimating COVID-19 mortality in Italy early in the COVID-19 pandemic.
复制标题
在 COVID-19 大流行早期估计意大利的 COVID-19 死亡率。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-22944-0
复制
发表时间：
2021-05-12
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Seljak U
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Modi C;Böhm V;Ferraro S;Stein G;Seljak U
由于病例确定的不确定性，估计COVID-19感染率和相关死亡率具有挑战性。我们对意大利城镇的整体死亡率数据进行反事实时间序列分析，将2020年的人口死亡率与往年进行比较，以估计COVID-19的死亡率。我们发现，截至9月9日，2020年意大利的COVID-19死亡人数为59000 - 62000人，而官方数字为36000人。受影响最严重的地区隆巴迪亚的死亡人口比例为0.29%，受影响最严重的省份贝加莫的死亡人口比例为0.57%。结合意大利报告的检测阳性率和钻石公主号游轮的感染死亡率估计值，我们估计伦巴第的感染率为29%（95%置信区间为15-52%），贝加莫的感染率为72%（95%置信区间为36-100%）。对COVID-19相关死亡率的估计受到不完整检测的限制。在这里，作者进行了反事实分析，并估计截至2020年9月9日，意大利有59，000 - 62，000人死于COVID-19，约为官方统计数字的1.5倍。
Estimating rates of COVID-19 infection and associated mortality is challenging due to uncertainties in case ascertainment. We perform a counterfactual time series analysis on overall mortality data from towns in Italy, comparing the population mortality in 2020 with previous years, to estimate mortality from COVID-19. We find that the number of COVID-19 deaths in Italy in 2020 until September 9 was 59,000–62,000, compared to the official number of 36,000. The proportion of the population that died was 0.29% in the most affected region, Lombardia, and 0.57% in the most affected province, Bergamo. Combining reported test positive rates from Italy with estimates of infection fatality rates from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, we estimate the infection rate as 29% (95% confidence interval 15–52%) in Lombardy, and 72% (95% confidence interval 36–100%) in Bergamo. Estimates of COVID-19-related mortality are limited by incomplete testing. Here, the authors perform counterfactual analyses and estimate that there were 59,000–62,000 deaths from COVID-19 in Italy until 9th September 2020, approximately 1.5 times higher than official statistics.
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DOI：
10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.12.2000256
发表时间：
2020-03-01
期刊：
Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
影响因子：
--
作者：
Russell, Timothy W;Hellewell, Joel;Kucharski, Adam J
通讯作者：
Kucharski, Adam J
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Wu, Joseph T.;Leung, Kathy;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
De Natale, Giuseppe;Ricciardi, Valerio;Troise, Claudia
通讯作者：
Troise, Claudia
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Abadie, Alberto;Diamond, Alexis;Hainmueller, Jens
通讯作者：
Hainmueller, Jens