Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).
Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).
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DOI：
10.1007/s00484-014-0843-3
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发表时间：
2015-03
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Cloke, H. L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pappenberger, F.;Jendritzky, G.;Staiger, H.;Dutra, E.;Di Giuseppe, F.;Richardson, D. S.;Cloke, H. L.
关键词：
虽然一百多个热指数可以用来评估热健康危害，但许多指数忽略了人体的热量预算、生理和服装。通用热气候指数(UTCI)通过使用先进的热生理模型解决了这些缺点。本文评估了使用UTCI预测热健康危害的潜力。传统上，这种危险预测还有两个进一步的局限性：它狭隘地聚焦于特定地区或国家，并依赖于单一的“确定性”预测。在这里，UTCI是在全球范围内计算的，这对国际健康危害警告和备灾至关重要，它是以概率预测的形式提供的。结果表明，概率UTCI预报在技术上优于确定性预报，尽管全球变化较大，但UTCI预报对于提前期长达10天的预报是熟练的。本文还以2010年俄罗斯热浪为例，论证了概率UTCI预报的实用性。
Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale, which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Jendritzky, Gerd;de Dear, Richard;Havenith, George
通讯作者：
Havenith, George
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Bartholmes, J. C.;Thielen, J.;Gentilini, S.
通讯作者：
Gentilini, S.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
de Dear, RJ;Brager, GS
通讯作者：
Brager, GS
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Havenith, G
通讯作者：
Havenith, G
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Havenith, George;Fiala, Dusan;Jendritzky, Gerd
通讯作者：
Jendritzky, Gerd