Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems.
Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems.
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多个气候变化驱动的沿海系统引爆点。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-94942-7
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发表时间：
2021-07-30
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Iacobellis SF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnard PL;Dugan JE;Page HM;Wood NJ;Hart JAF;Cayan DR;Erikson LH;Hubbard DM;Myers MR;Melack JM;Iacobellis SF
随着气候在下一个世纪的演变，海平面加速上升（SLR）和风暴的相互作用，加上发展和基础设施的限制，将对海洋-陆地边缘沿着的自然、生态和人类系统产生更大的压力。许多这些宝贵的沿海系统可能达到“临界点”，在这一点上，灾害暴露大大增加，并威胁到社区、基础设施和生态系统的现有形式、功能和生存能力。确定这些临界点的时间和性质对于有效的气候适应规划至关重要。在这里，我们提出了一个多学科的案例研究，从圣巴巴拉，加州（美国），以确定潜在的气候变化相关的各种沿海系统的临界点。本研究整合了气候、海洋水位、海滩和悬崖演变以及两种软沉积物生态系统（桑迪和潮汐湿地）的数值和统计模型。我们发现，海滩和湿地的临界点可以达到0.25米或更少的SLR（~ 2050），与> 50%的后续栖息地损失，将降低整体生物多样性和生态系统功能。相比之下，预计该地区五个社区的洪水社会经济风险的最大变化，直到SLR超过0.75米的日常洪水和1.5米的风暴驱动的洪水（~ 2100年或以后）。这些变化相对于社区总数来说不那么剧烈，鉴于社区的适应能力，不足以成为临界点。尽管如此，自然和人类建造的系统是相互关联的，因此自然系统功能的丧失可能会对居民的生活质量产生负面影响，并扰乱当地经济，从而在已建成的基础设施受到洪水直接影响之前就产生间接的社会经济影响。
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Barnard PL;Hoover D;Hubbard DM;Snyder A;Ludka BC;Allan J;Kaminsky GM;Ruggiero P;Gallien TW;Gabel L;McCandless D;Weiner HM;Cohn N;Anderson DL;Serafin KA
通讯作者：
Serafin KA
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Cayan, Daniel R.;Bromirski, Peter D.;Flick, Reinhard E.
通讯作者：
Flick, Reinhard E.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1817205116
发表时间：
2019-06-04
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Bamber, Jonathan L.;Oppenheimer, Michael;Cooke, Roger M.
通讯作者：
Cooke, Roger M.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Clark, Peter U.;Shakun, Jeremy D.;Plattner, Gian-Kasper
通讯作者：
Plattner, Gian-Kasper
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Bragg, Wendy Karen;Gonzalez, Sara Tasse;Stoltz, Amanda Dania
通讯作者：
Stoltz, Amanda Dania