Patterns of birth cohort-specific smoking histories, 1965-2009.
Patterns of birth cohort-specific smoking histories, 1965-2009.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2013.10.022
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发表时间：
2014-02
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Feuer, Eric J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holford, Theodore R.;Levy, David T.;Mckay, Lisa A.;Clarke, Lauren;Racine, Ben;Meza, Rafael;Land, Stephanie;Jeon, Jihyoun;Feuer, Eric J.
描述不同出生队列的吸烟模式对于评估烟草控制干预措施的影响和预测吸烟相关死亡率至关重要，但估计出生队列吸烟史的过程受到的关注有限。从1890年出生队列开始估计吸烟史摘要，以提供可用于吸烟干预策略研究的基本参数。1965年至2009年进行的美国国家健康访谈调查用于获取当前吸烟行为的横截面信息。调查提供了吸烟史的额外细节，包括开始和停止吸烟的年龄，以及吸烟强度，用于构建参与者截至调查日期的吸烟史。在纳入吸烟状况的生存差异后，使用约束自然样条的年龄阶段队列模型来估计从1890年开始的队列中当前吸烟者、曾经吸烟者和从不吸烟者的患病率。然后使用这种方法获得每个出生队列的年龄特定分布的起始、戒烟和吸烟强度的年度估计。这些比率是根据最近的趋势预测到2050年的。这份吸烟史总结显示了性别、队列和年龄随时间的明显趋势。如果目前的模式持续下去，预计从2010年到2040年吸烟率将缓慢下降。一种生成吸烟史的新方法已被应用于开发可用于微观模拟模型的吸烟史，并已被纳入国家癌症研究所的吸烟史生成器。这些按年龄、性别和队列划分的总估计数将提供长期吸烟数据的完整来源。
Characterizing the smoking patterns for different birth cohorts is essential for evaluating the impact of tobacco control interventions and predicting smoking-related mortality, but the process of estimating birth cohort smoking histories has received limited attention. Smoking history summaries were estimated beginning with the 1890 birth cohort in order to provide fundamental parameters that can be used in studies of cigarette smoking intervention strategies U.S. National Health Interview Surveys conducted from 1965 to 2009 were used to obtain cross-sectional information on current smoking behavior. Surveys that provided additional detail on history for smokers including age at initiation and cessation, and smoking intensity were used to construct smoking histories for participants up to the date of survey. After incorporating survival differences by smoking status, age-period cohort models with constrained natural splines were used to estimate the prevalence of current, former and never smokers in cohorts beginning in 1890. This approach was then used to obtain yearly estimates of initiation, cessation and smoking intensity for the age-specific distribution for each birth cohort. These rates were projected forward through 2050 based on recent trends. This summary of smoking history shows clear trends by gender, cohort and age over time. If current patterns persist, a slow decline in smoking prevalence is projected from 2010 through 2040. A novel method of generating smoking histories has been applied to develop smoking histories that can be used in micro-simulation models, and has been incorporated in the National Cancer Institute’s Smoking History Generator. These aggregate estimates developed by age, gender and cohort will provide a complete source of smoking data over time.
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影响因子：
2
作者：
DURRLEMAN, S;SIMON, R
通讯作者：
SIMON, R
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djs136
发表时间：
2012-04-04
期刊：
Journal of the National Cancer Institute
影响因子：
--
作者：
Moolgavkar SH;Holford TR;Levy DT;Kong CY;Foy M;Clarke L;Jeon J;Hazelton WD;Meza R;Schultz F;McCarthy W;Boer R;Gorlova O;Gazelle GS;Kimmel M;McMahon PM;de Koning HJ;Feuer EJ
通讯作者：
Feuer EJ
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Fichtenberg, CM;Glantz, SA
通讯作者：
Glantz, SA
影响因子：
5
作者：
Hyland, A;Cummings, KM;Giffen, CA
通讯作者：
Giffen, CA
影响因子：
12.7
作者：
Levy, DT;Bauer, JE;Lee, HR
通讯作者：
Lee, HR