Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting.
Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.032
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发表时间：
2011-11-21
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Kirschner, Denise
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guzzetta, Giorgio;Ajelli, Marco;Yang, Zhenhua;Merler, Stefano;Furlanello, Cesare;Kirschner, Denise
关键词：
有证据表明，在低负担环境中，通过选定的社会途径优先混合结核病感染的传播。需要对这些接触途径进行现实的建模，以适当评估个别目标控制策略的影响，例如对指示病例进行接触网络调查和治疗潜伏性结核感染（LTBI）。我们提出了一个年龄结构，社会人口个体为基础的模型（IBM），具有一个现实的，时间演变的结构，优先接触的人口。特别是考虑到家庭、学校和工作场所内的传播，以及偶然的、距离依赖的接触的组成部分。我们还将该模型与另外两种没有社会联系结构（同质混合传输）的公式进行了比较：没有年龄结构的基线确定性模型和年龄结构的IBM模型。社会人口统计学IBM更好地适应了美国阿肯色州最近的结核病流行病学纵向数据，这是一个低负担环境的例子。事实证明，将年龄结构纳入模型对于捕获重新激活的结核病病例的实际比例（与最近传播的病例相对）以及分析年龄组特定发病率至关重要。社会人口结构还提供了结核病传播率的预测（家庭接触者的感染率以及家庭和工作场所接触者的继发病例率）。这些结果表明，社会人口统计学IBM是评估当前控制策略的最佳选择，包括对索引病例的接触网络调查，以及对替代方案的模拟，特别是对结核病根除目标的模拟。
Evidence of preferential mixing through selected social routes has been suggested for the transmission of tuberculosis (TB) infection in low burden settings. A realistic modelization of these contact routes is needed to appropriately assess the impact of individually targeted control strategies, such as contact network investigation of index cases and treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI). We propose an age-structured, socio-demographic individual based model (IBM) with a realistic, time-evolving structure of preferential contacts in a population. In particular, transmission within households, schools and work-places, together with a component of casual, distance-dependent contacts are considered. We also compared the model against two other formulations having no social structure of contacts (homogeneous mixing transmission): a baseline deterministic model without age structure and an age-structured IBM. The socio-demographic IBM better fitted recent longitudinal data on TB epidemiology in Arkansas, USA, which serves as an example of a low burden setting. Inclusion of age structure in the model proved fundamental to capturing actual proportions of reactivated TB cases (as opposed to recently transmitted) as well as profiling age-group specific incidence. The socio-demographic structure additionally provides a prediction of TB transmission rates (the rate of infection in household contacts and the rate of secondary cases in household and workplace contacts). These results suggest that the socio-demographic IBM is an optimal choice for evaluating current control strategies, including contact network investigation of index cases, and the simulation of alternative scenarios, particularly for TB eradication targets.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Dye, C;Garnett, GP;Williams, BG
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
2
作者：
Ajelli, Marco;Merler, Stefano
通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1164/rccm.200701-057oc
发表时间：
2008-02-01
影响因子：
24.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
Castro, Kenneth G.
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.1605
发表时间：
2010-02-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Merler, Stefano;Ajelli, Marco
通讯作者：
Ajelli, Marco