Bluetongue virus spread in Europe is a consequence of climatic, landscape and vertebrate host factors as revealed by phylogeographic inference.
Bluetongue virus spread in Europe is a consequence of climatic, landscape and vertebrate host factors as revealed by phylogeographic inference.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2017.0919
复制
发表时间：
2017-10-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Biek R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacquot M;Nomikou K;Palmarini M;Mertens P;Biek R
传染病传播的时空模式通常由环境和生态因素驱动。对于病媒传播的疾病尤其如此，因为病媒种群可能受到宿主分布以及气候和景观变量的强烈影响。在这里，我们的目标是确定蓝舌病病毒（BTV）的环境驱动因素，BTV是近几十年来在欧洲多次出现的反刍动物主要媒介传播疾病的病原体。为了确定影响BTV在欧洲扩散的气候，景观和宿主相关因素的重要性，我们将不同的地理模型拟合到113个时间戳和地理参考的BTV基因组的数据集，代表多种菌株和血清型。使用连续空间的扩散模型显示，地面栖息地低于300米的海拔，风向和较高的牲畜密度与更快的BTV运动。广义线性模型的离散地理分析结果广泛支持这些发现，但变化很大的空间分区的水平。与普遍的看法相反，我们没有发现平均温度对BTV扩散有积极影响的证据，尽管方法和生物学原因可能是造成这一结果的原因。我们的研究为BTV传播的驱动因素提供了重要的见解，这些驱动因素可以为病毒传播的预测模型提供信息，并对设计控制策略产生影响。
Spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of infectious diseases are commonly driven by environmental and ecological factors. This is particularly true for vector-borne diseases because vector populations can be strongly affected by host distribution as well as by climatic and landscape variables. Here, we aim to identify environmental drivers for bluetongue virus (BTV), the causative agent of a major vector-borne disease of ruminants that has emerged multiple times in Europe in recent decades. In order to determine the importance of climatic, landscape and host-related factors affecting BTV diffusion across Europe, we fitted different phylogeographic models to a dataset of 113 time-stamped and geo-referenced BTV genomes, representing multiple strains and serotypes. Diffusion models using continuous space revealed that terrestrial habitat below 300 m altitude, wind direction and higher livestock densities were associated with faster BTV movement. Results of discrete phylogeographic analysis involving generalized linear models broadly supported these findings, but varied considerably with the level of spatial partitioning. Contrary to common perception, we found no evidence for average temperature having a positive effect on BTV diffusion, though both methodological and biological reasons could be responsible for this result. Our study provides important insights into the drivers of BTV transmission at the landscape scale that could inform predictive models of viral spread and have implications for designing control strategies.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Caporale M;Di Gialleonorado L;Janowicz A;Wilkie G;Shaw A;Savini G;Van Rijn PA;Mertens P;Di Ventura M;Palmarini M
通讯作者：
Palmarini M
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Batten C;Darpel K;Henstock M;Fay P;Veronesi E;Gubbins S;Graves S;Frost L;Oura C
通讯作者：
Oura C
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1110
发表时间：
2008-03-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gubbins S;Carpenter S;Baylis M;Wood JL;Mellor PS
通讯作者：
Mellor PS
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2012.0196
发表时间：
2013-03-19
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Faria NR;Suchard MA;Rambaut A;Streicker DG;Lemey P
通讯作者：
Lemey P
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Jones KE;Patel NG;Levy MA;Storeygard A;Balk D;Gittleman JL;Daszak P
通讯作者：
Daszak P