Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number.
Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1110
复制
发表时间：
2008-03-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mellor PS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gubbins S;Carpenter S;Baylis M;Wood JL;Mellor PS
自1998年以来，引起蓝舌病的蓝舌病毒(BTV)在欧洲以史无前例的一系列入侵向北扩展，这表明英国大型和有价值的畜牧业面临风险。蓝舌病是一种非传染性的反刍动物传染病。基本繁殖数R0提供了一个强大的工具，可以用来评估疾病构成的风险水平。在这篇文章中，我们计算了BTV在包含牛和羊两个宿主物种的种群中的R0。影响R0的每个参数的估计都是从已发表的文献中获得的，尽可能使用那些适用于英国情况的参数。此外，对于已量化的参数，还包括了明确的温度依赖关系。基于拉丁超立方体抽样和偏等级相关系数的不确定性和敏感性分析表明，温度、从宿主传播到媒介的概率和媒介与宿主的比率在决定R0的大小方面是最重要的。温度的重要性反映了这样一个事实，即它影响着BTV传播过程中的许多过程，特别是咬合率、外部潜伏期和媒介死亡率。
Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R0 for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R0. The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Gerry, AC;Mullens, BA
通讯作者：
Mullens, BA
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
GOLDSMIT, L;BARZILAI, E;TADMOR, A
通讯作者：
TADMOR, A
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Mullens, BA;Gerry, AC;Velten, RK
通讯作者：
Velten, RK
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.1986.0072
发表时间：
1986-12-15
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
BRAVERMAN, Y;LINLEY, JR;FRISH, K
通讯作者：
FRISH, K