Spatial clustering in vaccination hesitancy: The role of social influence and social selection.
Spatial clustering in vaccination hesitancy: The role of social influence and social selection.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010437
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
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在过去的三十年中，疫苗犹豫行为的现象越来越普遍，危及群体免疫力的维持。这种行为倾向于在空间上聚集，产生一些未受保护的亚群，这些亚群可能是爆发出现的热点。仍然不太了解的是，可以引起接种行为的空间聚集的社会机制，特别是在景观尺度上。我们专注于空间集群的存在，并旨在机械地理解不同的社会过程如何引起这种现象。特别是，我们提出了两个假设来解释空间聚类的存在：（i）社会选择，其中疫苗犹豫的个人共享社会人口特征，这些特征的聚类产生疫苗犹豫的空间聚类;和（ii）社会影响，其中犹豫的行为是传染性的，并通过邻近的社会传播，导致犹豫集群。采用理论空间网络的方法，我们探讨了这两个过程中产生的空间聚集在一系列的空间结构下的接种行为的模式的作用。我们发现这两个过程都能够独立地产生空间聚集，并且社会中的社会动态的空间结构越多，它实现的疫苗犹豫行为的空间聚集就越高。总之，我们表明，这些过程导致独特的空间配置的犹豫集群，我们验证了我们的模型，这两个过程与细粒度的经验数据在美国的疫苗犹豫，社会决定因素和社会连接。最后，我们提出并评估了两种新的干预策略，以减少犹豫行为的有效性。我们的生成建模方法由独特的经验数据提供信息，提供了关于复杂社会过程在驱动疫苗犹豫中的空间异质性方面的作用的见解。近几十年来，疫苗接种犹豫行为越来越普遍，威胁到群体免疫力的维持。疫苗犹豫的地理聚集产生了未受保护的亚群，这些亚群可能成为暴发出现的热点。尽管科学界已经对疫苗犹豫的复杂现象进行了充分的研究，但对这种行为中驱动地理聚集的机制却知之甚少。在这项研究中，我们考虑了两个假设的机制，可能会导致地理集群的高犹豫：（一）我们假设集群的高犹豫出现，因为犹豫是与潜在的社会经济特征（例如高收入），它们本身在地理上是聚集的;或（B）我们假设，高犹豫的集群之所以出现，是因为犹豫的个人社会扩散的行为在他们的社会网络，这往往是地理聚集。我们使用计算实验来测试这些机制对犹豫行为的地理分布的影响。我们发现，这两个过程是独立的能够产生地理集群的高犹豫，并提出和评估两种新的干预策略的有效性，以减缓犹豫的上升，并减少由于地理集群爆发出现的风险增加。
The phenomenon of vaccine hesitancy behavior has gained ground over the last three decades, jeopardizing the maintenance of herd immunity. This behavior tends to cluster spatially, creating pockets of unprotected sub-populations that can be hotspots for outbreak emergence. What remains less understood are the social mechanisms that can give rise to spatial clustering in vaccination behavior, particularly at the landscape scale. We focus on the presence of spatial clustering, and aim to mechanistically understand how different social processes can give rise to this phenomenon. In particular, we propose two hypotheses to explain the presence of spatial clustering: (i) social selection, in which vaccine-hesitant individuals share socio-demographic traits, and clustering of these traits generates spatial clustering in vaccine hesitancy; and (ii) social influence, in which hesitant behavior is contagious and spreads through neighboring societies, leading to hesitant clusters. Adopting a theoretical spatial network approach, we explore the role of these two processes in generating patterns of spatial clustering in vaccination behaviors under a range of spatial structures. We find that both processes are independently capable of generating spatial clustering, and the more spatially structured the social dynamics in a society are, the higher spatial clustering in vaccine-hesitant behavior it realizes. Together, we demonstrate that these processes result in unique spatial configurations of hesitant clusters, and we validate our models of both processes with fine-grain empirical data on vaccine hesitancy, social determinants, and social connectivity in the US. Finally, we propose, and evaluate the effectiveness of two novel intervention strategies to diminish hesitant behavior. Our generative modeling approach informed by unique empirical data provides insights on the role of complex social processes in driving spatial heterogeneity in vaccine hesitancy. In recent decades, vaccination hesitancy behavior has gained ground, threatening the maintenance of herd immunity. Geographic clustering of vaccine hesitancy creates pockets of unprotected sub-populations that can become hotspots for outbreak emergence. Even though the complex phenomenon of vaccine hesitancy has been well-studied by the scientific community, the mechanisms driving geographic clustering in this behavior are poorly understood. In this study, we consider two hypothesized mechanisms that may lead to geographic clusters of high hesitancy: (a) we hypothesize that clusters of high hesitancy arise because hesitancy is associated with underlying socio-economic traits (e.g. high income) that are themselves geographically clustered; or (b) we hypothesize that clusters of high hesitancy arise because hesitant individually social diffuse the behavior among their social network which tends to be geographically clustered. We use computational experiments to test the impact of these mechanisms on the geographical distribution of hesitancy behavior. We find that both processes are independently capable of generating geographical clusters of high hesitancy, and propose and evaluate the effectiveness of two novel intervention strategies to slow the rise in hesitancy and diminish the increased risk of outbreak emergence due to geographic clustering.
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