Three Gorges Dam: polynomial regression modeling of water level and the density of schistosome-transmitting snails Oncomelania hupensis.
Three Gorges Dam: polynomial regression modeling of water level and the density of schistosome-transmitting snails Oncomelania hupensis.
复制标题
三峡大坝：水位与血吸虫钉螺密度的多项式回归模型
DOI：
10.1186/s13071-018-2687-x
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发表时间：
2018-03-14
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Jiang Q
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Y;Gao J;Cheng W;Pan X;Yang Y;Chen Y;Dai Q;Zhu L;Zhou Y;Jiang Q
背景：在中国，血吸虫病仍然是一个主要的公共卫生问题。湖北钉螺是日本血吸虫唯一的中间宿主，其分布和密度的变化影响着日本血吸虫的流行。三峡大坝（TGD）对大坝下游水位产生了实质性的影响。研究了洪水持续时间与钉螺种群密度之间的定量关系。方法：选取湖南省岳阳市2个无钉螺防治措施的洼地。采集2009-2015年春、秋季钉螺种群密度和水位数据。采用多项式回归分析探讨了洪水持续时间与钉螺种群密度之间的关系。结果：春螺密度与前一年洪水持续时间呈凸关系（调整R2， aR2= 0.61）。前一年春螺密度在淹水持续时间小于50 d时较低，在淹水持续时间为123 d时密度最高，之后呈下降趋势。秋螺密度与当年汛期呈相似的凸关系（aR2= 0.77）。钉螺密度在淹水时间小于50 d时较低，在淹水时间为139 d时最高。结论：汛期与春秋季钉螺密度呈凸关系。钉螺密度在洪水持续4 ~ 5个月时最高。
Background:Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in China. Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis) is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, and its change in distribution and density influences the endemic S. japonicum. The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has substantially changed the downstream water levels of the dam. This study investigated the quantitative relationship between flooding duration and the density of the snail population.Methods:Two bottomlands without any control measures for snails were selected in Yueyang City, Hunan Province. Data for the density of the snail population and water level in both spring and autumn were collected for the period 2009-2015. Polynomial regression analysis was applied to explore the relationship between flooding duration and the density of the snail population.Results:Data showed a convex relationship between spring snail density and flooding duration of the previous year (adjusted R2, aR2= 0.61). The spring snail density remained low when the flooding duration was fewer than 50 days in the previous year, was the highest when the flooding duration was 123 days, and decreased thereafter. There was a similar convex relationship between autumn snail density and flooding duration of the current year (aR2= 0.77). The snail density was low when the flooding duration was fewer than 50 days and was the highest when the flooding duration was 139 days.Conclusions:There was a convex relationship between flooding duration and the spring or autumn snail density. The snail density was the highest when flooding lasted about four to 5 months.
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影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Seto, Edmund Y. W.;Wu, Weiping;Davis, George M.
通讯作者：
Davis, George M.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Zhou YB;Liang S;Jiang QW
通讯作者：
Jiang QW
中国安徽省日本血吸虫病的时空传播和环境决定因素。
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hu Y;Li R;Bergquist R;Lynn H;Gao F;Wang Q;Zhang S;Sun L;Zhang Z;Jiang Q
通讯作者：
Jiang Q
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Wu JY;Zhou YB;Chen Y;Liang S;Li LH;Zheng SB;Zhu SP;Ren GH;Song XX;Jiang QW
通讯作者：
Jiang QW
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Zhou YB;Liang S;Chen Y;Jiang QW
通讯作者：
Jiang QW