Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition.
Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10680-009-9186-x
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发表时间：
2010-05
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Mason, Andrew
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee, Ronald;Mason, Andrew
如果夫妇少生孩子，但在每个孩子身上投资更多，那么低生育率和人口老龄化会导致经济衰退吗？通过解决这个问题，本文扩展了以前的工作，作者表明，人口老龄化导致对财富的需求增加，在某些条件下，这可能导致人均资本增加和人均消费增加。本文基于一个代际交叠模型，强调人力资本投资与经济增长之间的数量-质量权衡和联系。它纳入了国家转移账户项目编制的新的国家一级人力资本投资估计数。模拟分析表明，即使在没有资本稀释效应的情况下，低生育率通过人力资本积累导致更高的人均消费，给出合理的模型参数。
Do low fertility and population aging lead to economic decline if couples have fewer children, but invest more in each child? By addressing this question, this article extends previous work in which the authors show that population aging leads to an increased demand for wealth that can, under some conditions, lead to increased capital per worker and higher per capita consumption. This article is based on an overlapping generations (OLG) model which highlights the quantity–quality tradeoff and the links between human capital investment and economic growth. It incorporates new national level estimates of human capital investment produced by the National Transfer Accounts project. Simulation analysis is employed to show that, even in the absence of the capital dilution effect, low fertility leads to higher per capita consumption through human capital accumulation, given plausible model parameters.
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