Retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study.
Retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-90051-7
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发表时间：
2021-05-28
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Bordehore C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
García-García D;Vigo MI;Fonfría ES;Herrador Z;Navarro M;Bordehore C
每日新增感染人数是了解流行病动态的主要参数之一。然而，于二零二零年COVID-19疫情期间，有关资料被低估。在这里，我们提出了一种回顾性的方法来估计每天的感染从每天的死亡，因为这些通常是更准确地记录。鉴于潜伏期、发病至死亡的时间和病死率，死亡日期可从感染日期估计。我们反过来应用这个概念来估计死亡的感染。这一方法适用于西班牙及其19个行政区。我们的研究结果显示，第一波疫情期间的每日感染病例可能是3月14日国家政府下令全国封锁时官方记录的35至42倍，是官方数据更新版本记录的9倍。全国封锁对病毒传播的增长率产生了强烈的影响，病毒传播的增长率立即开始下降。最后，西班牙的第一次推断感染是在第一波官方数据可用之前大约43天。目前的官方数据显示，在63%的地区，首次感染相对于推断的感染延迟了15-30天。总之，我们提出了一种方法，允许重新解释官方的每日感染，提高感染程度和日期的数据准确性，因为它吸收了国家血清阳性率研究的有价值的信息。
The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data. The national lockdown had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first inferred infection in Spain is about 43 days before the official data were available during the first wave. The current official data show delays of 15–30 days in the first infection relative to the inferred infections in 63% of the regions. In summary, we propose a methodology that allows reinterpretation of official daily infections, improving data accuracy in infection magnitude and dates because it assimilates valuable information from the National Seroprevalence Studies.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Wallinga, J;Teunis, P
通讯作者：
Teunis, P
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
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Dominguez-Gil, Beatriz;Coll, Elisabeth;Hernandez, Domingo
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Hernandez, Domingo
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1.9
作者：
León-Gómez, Inmaculada;Delgado-Sanz, Concepción;Mateo Ontañón, Salvador de
通讯作者：
Mateo Ontañón, Salvador de
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Caillaud, Damien;Craft, Meggan E.;Meyers, Lauren Ancel
通讯作者：
Meyers, Lauren Ancel