Intergrated Seismic Risk Analysis for Earth Dams

本研究通过将地震事件的概率预测与大坝性能的概率评估相结合，升级了最先进的地震分析程序。因此，这项研究的结果将提供评估地震危险和相应的土坝破坏风险所迫切需要的信息，以适应具体的场地条件。本研究将首先通过开发一种地震性能分析方法来识别大坝的不同破坏模式，并根据大坝的性能建立损伤概率。然后，分析结果将与具体地点的地震危害评估相结合，以提供一种方法来估计大坝崩溃的最终风险因素。

This research upgrades the state-of-the-art of seismic analysis procedures by combining the probability predictions of seismic events with the probabilistic assessments of the performance of dams. The results of this study, therefore, will provide information critically needed to assess the seismic hazard and the consequent risk of damage to earth dams, for site specific conditions. This study will be made by first developing a seismic performance analysis method to identify the different modes of dam failure and establishing the damage probabilities based on the dam performance. The analysis results will then be combined with site specific seismic hazard evaluations to provide a methodology for estimating the eventual risk factors for dam failures.