Intergrated Seismic Risk Analysis for Earth Dams

这项研究通过将地震事件的概率预测与大坝性能的概率评估相结合，提升了地震分析程序的最新水平。因此，这项研究的结果将提供至关重要的信息，以评估地震危险和因此而对土坝造成破坏的风险，并针对现场的具体情况。这项研究将首先开发一种抗震性能分析方法来识别不同的大坝破坏模式，并建立基于大坝性能的破坏概率。然后，分析结果将与特定地点的地震风险评估相结合，为评估大坝坍塌的最终风险因素提供一种方法。

This research upgrades the state-of-the-art of seismic analysis procedures by combining the probability predictions of seismic events with the probabilistic assessments of the performance of dams. The results of this study, therefore, will provide information critically needed to assess the seismic hazard and the consequent risk of damage to earth dams, for site specific conditions. This study will be made by first developing a seismic performance analysis method to identify the different modes of dam failure and establishing the damage probabilities based on the dam performance. The analysis results will then be combined with site specific seismic hazard evaluations to provide a methodology for estimating the eventual risk factors for dam failures.