U.S.-Austria Cooperative Research: Practical Choice of Multicriterion Decision-Making Techniques for Risk Analysis in Water Resources Development

美奥合作研究：水资源开发风险分析多标准决策技术的实用选择

• 批准号: 8620200
• 负责人: Lucien Duckstein
• 金额: $ 1.05万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1987
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1987-09-15 至 1991-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=8620200&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: U.S.; Austria; Cooperative; Research; Practical

This award will support a three-year cooperative research project in risk analysis that will involve Professor Lucien Duckstein, University of Arizona; Professor Istvan Bogardi, University of Nebraska; and three faculty members at the Vienna Agricultural University in Austria: H.-P. Nachtnebel, S. A. Radler, and J. Fuerst. The collaborative effort is concerned with an examination of multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) tools that have been applied to model the mitigation of the hazardous effects of water resources development on the human environment. Fuzzy set theory and Bayesian theory will be combined with MCDM techniques to develop methodologies that take into account the existence of both imprecision and uncertainty in water resource systems. These methodologies will be applied to three illustrative, real-world problem areas: water-related power systems, regional water system design, and multicriterion groundwater management. Special emphasis will be placed on interactive computer techniques as well as graphical display of the data, definition of the model structure, and generation of alternatives. A clear representation of system output will be sought, as well as the proper design of a knowledge base to aid in the decision process. Decision makers in the water resources field and related areas are currently without the requisite analytical tools to incorporate risk, uncertainty, and imprecision in the decision-making process in an adequate way. There is thus a recognized need for further development of risk analysis methodology, especially within a multicriterion framework. The cooperating researchers in this project will attempt to improve risk assessment and management methodology by demonstrating how trade-offs can be made between environmental risks and corresponding costs. Specific applications to water resources and hazardous waste management in the United States and Austria will be sought. The selected application areas are important in both countries, and require the utilization of advanced methods of risk analysis for thorough study. Both the U.S. and the Austrian partners in this effort have carried out intensive research activity in MCDM analysis of water resources engineering systems and in risk/reliability analysis, and the project is expected to benefit greatly from their combined expertise.

该奖项将支持一个为期三年的合作研究项目， 风险分析，将涉及教授吕西安Duckstein，大学 亚利桑那州;教授伊斯特万博加迪，内布拉斯加大学;和三个 奥地利维也纳农业大学的教员：H.- P. 纳赫特内贝尔，S. A. Radler和J.富尔斯特。 合作努力是 多学科决策（MCDM） 已应用于模拟缓解危险 水资源开发对人类环境的影响。 模糊 集合论和贝叶斯理论将与MCDM技术相结合， 制定考虑到两者存在的方法 水资源系统的不精确性和不确定性。 这些 方法将应用于三个说明性的，现实世界的问题， 领域：与水有关的电力系统，区域水系统设计，以及 多水源地下水管理 将特别强调 在交互式计算机技术以及图形显示的 数据，模型结构的定义，以及 替代品. 将寻求系统输出的明确表示， 以及知识库的适当设计，以帮助决策 过程 水资源领域和相关领域的决策者是 目前没有必要的分析工具来纳入风险， 不确定性和不精确的决策过程中， 适当的方式。 因此，人们认识到需要进一步发展 风险分析方法，特别是在一个多学科 框架. 该项目的合作研究人员将试图 改进风险评估和管理方法， 可以在环境风险和相应的 成本 对水资源和危险废物的具体应用 将寻求在美国和奥地利的管理。 的 选定的应用领域在两国都很重要， 利用先进的风险分析方法， study. 美国和奥地利在这方面的合作伙伴都 在水的MCDM分析方面开展了深入的研究活动 资源工程系统和风险/可靠性分析，以及 预计该项目将大大受益于他们的综合专业知识。