U.S.-Austria Cooperative Research: Practical Choice of Multicriterion Decision-Making Techniques for Risk Analysis in Water Resources Development

该奖项将资助一个为期三年的风险分析合作研究项目，参与者包括亚利桑那大学的Lucien Duckstein教授、内布拉斯加大学的Istvan Bogardi教授以及奥地利维也纳农业大学的三名教员：H.P.Nachtnebel、S.A.Radler和J.Fuerst。合作努力涉及对多标准决策(MCDM)工具的审查，这些工具已被应用于模拟缓解水资源开发对人类环境的危险影响。模糊集理论和贝叶斯理论将与多目标清洁发展机制技术相结合，以开发考虑到水资源系统中存在的不精确性和不确定性的方法。这些方法将应用于三个具有说明性的现实问题领域：与水有关的电力系统、区域水系统设计和多标准地下水管理。将特别强调交互式计算机技术以及数据的图形显示、模型结构的定义和备选方案的生成。将寻求系统输出的明确表述，以及适当设计知识库，以协助决策过程。水资源领域和相关领域的决策者目前缺乏必要的分析工具，无法适当地将风险、不确定性和不精确性纳入决策过程。因此，认识到有必要进一步发展风险分析方法，特别是在多标准框架内。该项目的合作研究人员将试图通过演示如何在环境风险和相应成本之间进行权衡来改进风险评估和管理方法。将寻求在美国和奥地利的水资源和危险废物管理方面的具体应用。选定的应用领域对两国都很重要，需要利用先进的风险分析方法进行彻底研究。美国和奥地利在这一努力中的合作伙伴都在水资源工程系统的MCDM分析和风险/可靠性分析方面开展了密集的研究活动，预计该项目将从他们的联合专业知识中受益匪浅。

This award will support a three-year cooperative research project in risk analysis that will involve Professor Lucien Duckstein, University of Arizona; Professor Istvan Bogardi, University of Nebraska; and three faculty members at the Vienna Agricultural University in Austria: H.-P. Nachtnebel, S. A. Radler, and J. Fuerst. The collaborative effort is concerned with an examination of multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) tools that have been applied to model the mitigation of the hazardous effects of water resources development on the human environment. Fuzzy set theory and Bayesian theory will be combined with MCDM techniques to develop methodologies that take into account the existence of both imprecision and uncertainty in water resource systems. These methodologies will be applied to three illustrative, real-world problem areas: water-related power systems, regional water system design, and multicriterion groundwater management. Special emphasis will be placed on interactive computer techniques as well as graphical display of the data, definition of the model structure, and generation of alternatives. A clear representation of system output will be sought, as well as the proper design of a knowledge base to aid in the decision process. Decision makers in the water resources field and related areas are currently without the requisite analytical tools to incorporate risk, uncertainty, and imprecision in the decision-making process in an adequate way. There is thus a recognized need for further development of risk analysis methodology, especially within a multicriterion framework. The cooperating researchers in this project will attempt to improve risk assessment and management methodology by demonstrating how trade-offs can be made between environmental risks and corresponding costs. Specific applications to water resources and hazardous waste management in the United States and Austria will be sought. The selected application areas are important in both countries, and require the utilization of advanced methods of risk analysis for thorough study. Both the U.S. and the Austrian partners in this effort have carried out intensive research activity in MCDM analysis of water resources engineering systems and in risk/reliability analysis, and the project is expected to benefit greatly from their combined expertise.