COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Effect of the Global Climatic Changeon Regional Hydrology

一个多机构的努力，提出了获得时空 反映气候的区域水文量系列 改变场景 拟调查的地理区域包括 位于亚利桑那州中部和内布拉斯加州的普拉特河下游盆地。 的 方法是基于对发生、持续和 大气环流模式的转换概率。 这些模式每天都被定义为压力面， 可靠的数据。 拟议的研究包括 三个阶段。 在第一阶段，对流通进行分类 将寻求模式;每种类型的模式，然后在 对当地时空降水、径流、 温度，风。 温度和风被用来定义 区域干旱指数。 降水将转化为 使用相对简单的流域模型。 在第二 在研究阶段，可用的GCM输出用于定义 可能的每日环流时间序列情景 降水、径流、温度和区域干旱。 最后，区域水文事件的历史序列可以 与各种情景预测进行比较。 第三 在研究阶段，气候变化的后果将是 以犹他州的大盐湖为例进行分析。

A multi-institutional effort is proposed to obtain space-time series of regional hydrological quantities reflecting climatic change scenarios. The geographical areas to be investigated cover central Arizona and the lower Platte river basin of Nebraska. The approach is based on an analysis of the occurrence, persistence and transition probabilities of atmospheric circulation patterns. These patterns are defined daily as pressure surfaces using available and reliable data. The proposed research consists of three phases. In the first phase, a classification of circulation patterns will be sought; each type of pattern is then related in a conditional framework to local space-time precipitation, runoff, temperature, and wind. Temperature and wind are used to define regional drought indices. Precipitation will be transformed into runoff using relatively simple watershed models. In the second phase of the research, available GCM outputs are used to define scenarios of possible daily time series of circulation precipitation, runoff, temperature, and regional droughts. Finally, the historical series of regional hydrologic events can be compared to the various scenario predictions. In the third phase of the research, the consequence of climatic change will be analyzed by taking the example of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.