COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Effect of the Global Climatic Changeon Regional Hydrology

建议进行多机构努力，以获得反映气候变化情景的区域水文量的时空序列。要调查的地理区域包括亚利桑那州中部和内布拉斯加州的下普拉特河流域。该方法基于对大气环流型的发生、持续和转移概率的分析。这些模式每天都被定义为压力表面，使用可用和可靠的数据。拟议的研究包括三个阶段。在第一阶段，将寻求环流模式的分类；然后在条件框架中将每种类型的环流模式与当地的时空降水、径流、温度和风联系起来。温度和风被用来定义区域干旱指数。降水将利用相对简单的流域模型转化为径流。在研究的第二阶段，可用的GCM输出被用来定义可能的环流降水、径流、温度和区域干旱的每日时间序列的情景。最后，可以将区域水文事件的历史序列与各种情景预测进行比较。在第三阶段的研究中，将以犹他州大盐湖为例分析气候变化的后果。

A multi-institutional effort is proposed to obtain space-time series of regional hydrological quantities reflecting climatic change scenarios. The geographical areas to be investigated cover central Arizona and the lower Platte river basin of Nebraska. The approach is based on an analysis of the occurrence, persistence and transition probabilities of atmospheric circulation patterns. These patterns are defined daily as pressure surfaces using available and reliable data. The proposed research consists of three phases. In the first phase, a classification of circulation patterns will be sought; each type of pattern is then related in a conditional framework to local space-time precipitation, runoff, temperature, and wind. Temperature and wind are used to define regional drought indices. Precipitation will be transformed into runoff using relatively simple watershed models. In the second phase of the research, available GCM outputs are used to define scenarios of possible daily time series of circulation precipitation, runoff, temperature, and regional droughts. Finally, the historical series of regional hydrologic events can be compared to the various scenario predictions. In the third phase of the research, the consequence of climatic change will be analyzed by taking the example of the Great Salt Lake in Utah.