Fuzzy Rule-Based Modeling of Extremes under Climatic Change

Duckstein Bogardi该项目旨在开发和测试基于模糊规则的模型，用于预测全球气候变化下的区域旱涝特征。主要分为四个方面：1)建立基于模糊规则的日大气环流型CP类型时间序列与洪水事件特征和干旱发生严重程度指数的关联模型；2)利用基于GCM的气候变化情景，生成未来可能的CP类型时间序列和相应的洪旱概率；3)调查方法中的不确定性以及这些不确定性的社会经济后果；4)制定健全的缓解措施并进行排序。预计这项研究的好处是：一个易于使用的模型，可以产生气候变化下可能发生的洪涝和干旱的时间序列，可以更新和耦合，并可以接受模糊预测；社会和经济后果清单；一份缓解行动清单，并附有这些行动的初步标准排名；以及该模型在里约热内卢格兰德上游和密苏里河流域的应用。＊＊＊

9613654 9614017 Duckstein Bogardi The project is directed to the development and testing of a fuzzy rule-based model for predicting the characteristics of regional droughts and floods under global climate change. The work is divided into four tasks: 1) the construction of the fuzzy rule-based model relating the time series of daily Atmospheric Circulation Pattern CP types with flood events characteristics and drought occurrence severity index; 2) use of GCM based climate change scenarios to generate possible future time series of CP type and consequential flood and drought probabilities; 3) investigate the uncertainties in the approach and the socio-economic consequences of these uncertainties; and 4) develop and rank robust mitigating actions. The benefits from this research are expected to be: an easy-to-use model that will yield time series of possible floods and droughts under climate change that can be updated and coupled and can accept fuzzy forecasts; and inventory of social and economic consequences; an inventory of mitigation actions with a preliminary criteria ranking of these actions; and the application of the model to the upper Rio Grande and the Missouri River basins. ***