Decision-Making, Modeling and Forecasting Hydrometeorologic Extremes Under Climate Change

气候变化下的水文气象极端事件的决策、建模和预测

• 批准号: 9016462
• 负责人: Lucien Duckstein
• 金额: $ 14.49万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-02-15 至 1995-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9016462&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Decision; Making; Modeling; Forecasting; Hydrometeorologic

The project will develop a fuzzy set framework to deal with the effects of climatic changes on water resources management and with the uncertainties in the prediction of hydrometeorologic extremes, such as floods and droughts, under changing climatologic conditions. Probabilistic and fuzzy set analyses will be combined and historical data will be used to link local climate elements to global circulation models for the generation of circulation patterns. Anomalies in these patterns usually produce drought or flood and these events will be developed as time series. Forecasting will be carried out of such time series on the basis of circulation pattern series and some of these forecasts will be used in water resources decision-making, e.g., reservoir operation. The value of this research will be to provide theoretical bases to engineering techniques for taking climatic fluctuations and global changes into account in decision-making related to extreme droughts and floods.

该项目将开发一个模糊集框架，以处理气候变化对水资源管理的影响和极端水文气象预测中的不确定性，如洪水和干旱，在不断变化的气候条件下。将结合概率分析和模糊集分析，并将使用历史数据将当地气候要素与全球环流模型联系起来，以产生环流模式。这些模式中的异常通常会产生干旱或洪水，这些事件将以时间序列的形式发展。将在环流模式序列的基础上对这种时间序列进行预测，其中一些预测将用于水资源决策，例如水库调度。这项研究的价值将是为工程技术提供理论基础，以便在与极端干旱和洪水有关的决策中考虑气候波动和全球变化。