Decision-Making, Modeling and Forecasting Hydrometeorologic Extremes Under Climate Change

该项目将制订一套模糊框架，以处理气候变化对水资源管理的影响和预测极端水文气象（如洪水和干旱）的不确定性。在不断变化的气候条件下。概率和模糊集分析将结合起来，历史数据将用于将当地气候要素与全球环流模式联系起来，以生成环流模式。这些模式的异常通常会产生干旱或洪水，这些事件将作为时间序列发展。将根据循环型态序列对这种时间序列进行预报，其中一些预报将用于水资源决策，例如水库作业。这项研究的价值将是为工程技术提供理论基础，以便在与极端干旱和洪水有关的决策中考虑到气候波动和全球变化。

The project will develop a fuzzy set framework to deal with the effects of climatic changes on water resources management and with the uncertainties in the prediction of hydrometeorologic extremes, such as floods and droughts, under changing climatologic conditions. Probabilistic and fuzzy set analyses will be combined and historical data will be used to link local climate elements to global circulation models for the generation of circulation patterns. Anomalies in these patterns usually produce drought or flood and these events will be developed as time series. Forecasting will be carried out of such time series on the basis of circulation pattern series and some of these forecasts will be used in water resources decision-making, e.g., reservoir operation. The value of this research will be to provide theoretical bases to engineering techniques for taking climatic fluctuations and global changes into account in decision-making related to extreme droughts and floods.