Modelling Seasonal Metabolism to Detect the Response of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climatic Change

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Changes in the earth's climate are expected to be large and rapid. One of the feedbacks that affects the rates of these changes is the response of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, but it is not clear whether in the short term these responses will enhance or retard the CO2-caused warming. The objective of this project is to examine this question. The approach is to model terrestrial metabolism seasonally and to compare the computer seasonal flux of CO2 with the concentrations of CO2 observed in the atmosphere. The approach will be used at two levels of resolution. At coarse resolution, seasonal metabolism will be modelled for a single unit (an ecosystem, a region, or a hemisphere). Preliminary results suggest that the approach is useful, for example, in distinguishing among alternative explanations for the increased seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The more detailed resolution required modelling the seasonality of the earth's metabolism with geographical detail, and will compare modelled CO2 fluxes with the observed seasonal and geographic variability of CO2 concentrations. This comparison will use an existing atmospheric transport model. In preparation for this global analysis, the research will compare modelled CO2 fluxes for specific sites with recorded ambient CO2 concentrations measured at those sites. The hypothesis throughout is that information in atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be used to suggest the response of terrestrial systems to global change. The project team is excellent and will experienced in this type of research and may be expected to produce results of high quality. The institutional setting for the project will provide excellent scientific interaction and a synergistic environment of colleagues and related research. The Ecosystem Studies Program recommends that funding be made available for the first year of this three-year continuing award.