The Active Minority: Collaborative Research on Presidential Selection and the Political Parties

这项研究的重点是“积极的少数”公民谁将 参加总统提名和大选 1988年的战役。 调查人员感兴趣的是 这解释了与会者对候选人的支持， 他们在大会前的活动 以及他们愿意在秋季为本党提名人工作 运动中 该项目的设计特别认识到 过程的动态特性，并允许监控变化 在整个竞选过程中的态度和行为。 根据他们先前的研究，研究人员将测试一种 候选人支持的解释，包括活动家的判断 关于每个候选人有多大可能赢得他或她的政党的 提名，候选人对反对党的机会， 堕落，活动家的问题和意识形态偏好，以及 竞争者的个人特征。 评估亲属 这些因素的重要性对于理解 提名活动对美国人健康的影响 政党。 例如，强调问题和 在选择候选人时的意识形态利益有助于 这可能是由于大会前竞选活动的分裂， 如果他们喜欢的候选人不为党工作， 接受提名。 活动人士更关心提名一个 相比之下，赢家可能更有可能在秋季竞选中工作 即使该党未能提名他们喜欢的候选人。 研究设计涉及三个州的活动家调查： 爱荷华州，密歇根州和弗吉尼亚州。 这些国家之所以被选中，是因为 政治文化的多样性，因为选区党团会议将是 在提名竞选期间的不同时间举行。 此外，调查人员还从这些州获得了数据， 他们在1984年竞选期间进行的调查。 调查人员 将与1984年的结果进行比较， 重新联系1984年的受访者，以便通过 1988年竞选 调查人员将联系他们1984年参加党团会议的样本 在1988年期间三次：第一次在1月，然后在6月， 但在夏季大会之前，最后只是 11月大选后。 为了便于比较， 他们1984年关于党团会议参加者的数据，他们还将绘制新的样本， 1988年，参加两党在各州的党团会议。 这些受访者 将被联系两次：一次是在他们的核心小组会议之后立即联系， 在秋季选举之后，又一次。 最后 调查人员将对州和地方党的领导人进行抽样调查， 这三个国家，谁将在同一时间接触， 参加党团会议的人 目标是收集数据， 在缔约国或多或少长期从事活动的人， 为了评估缔约国各组织之间的关系 和总统选举过程

This research focuses on the "active minority" of citizens who will participate in the presidential nomination and general election campaigns of 1988. The investigators are interested in the factors that explain participants' support for candidates as well as the relationship between their activity in the preconvention campaigns and their willingness to work for their party's nominee in the fall campaign. The design of the project specifically recognizes the dynamic character of the process and permits monitoring of changing attitudes and behavior throughout the campaign. Based on their prior research, the investigators will test an explanation of candidate support that includes activists' judgments about how likely each candidate is to win his or her party's nomination, the candidate's chances against the opposition party in the fall, the issue and ideological preferences of the activist, and the personal characteristics of the contenders. Assessing the relative importance of these factors is crucial to understanding the implications of nomination campaigns for the health of the American political parties. For example, activists who emphasize issues and ideology interests in choosing a candidate contribute to the divisiveness of the preconvention campaign and may be less likely to work for the party in the fall should their preferred candidate not receive the nomination. Activists more concerned with nominating a winner, in contrast, may be more likely to work in the fall campaign even if the party fails to nominate their preferred candidate. The research design involves surveys of activists in three states: Iowa, Michigan, and Virginia. These states were selected due to their diversity in political culture, and because precinct caucuses will be held in them at different times during the nomination campaign. Moreover, the investigators have data from these same states from surveys they conducted during the 1984 campaign. The investigators will draw comparisons with their results from 1984 as well as re-contacting the 1984 respondents in order to follow them through the 1988 campaign. The investigators will contact their 1984 samples of caucus-attenders three times during 1988: first in January, then in June after the primary season but before the summer conventions, and finally just after the November election. In order to facilitate comparisons with their 1984 data on caucus-attenders, they will also draw new samples of 1988 caucus-attenders in both parties in each state. These respondents will be contacted twice: once immediately after the caucuses in their state, and again following the fall election. Finally, the investigators will survey samples of state and local party leaders in the three states, who will be contacted at exactly the same times as the caucus attenders in their states. The goal is to collect data on those who are more or less permanently active in the state parties in order to assess the relationship between the state party organizations and the presidential selection process.