Collaborative Research on Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections

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Stone 9515350 The nature and quality of the choice citizens are offered in congressional elections is central to the health of American democracy. In the candidate-centered arena of electoral politics, a great deal depends upon the individual candidates who choose (or choose not ) to run. Much of the problem reduces to a very significant incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections: when the incumbent decides to run for reelection, he or she is perceived as very difficult to beat. As a result, potentially strong candidates who might offer voters a significant alternative do not emerge to challenge the sitting member. The average challenger, therefore, is underqualified, underfunded, and relatively invisible to voters in the district. The result is that House elections often are not competitive, and the choice voters make is distorted to the significant advantage of incumbents. The dramatic partisan change that resulted from the 1994 election probably did not disturb the long-term incumbency effect, although it may dramatically alter the contours of congressional-election choice in other ways. In this investigation the researchers will examine candidate emergence by surveying a national sample of potential House candidates. The researchers argue that there are two "decisions" relevant to entering a House race in any particular year: a general commitment to run for a House seat and a specific decision to run in a given race.; The investigators contend that the general commitment to run is a necessary condition for virtually all House candidates and results from a strong interest in public policy outcomes, a sense that the House is an attractive and desirable institution in which to serve, and an ambition to hold public office. By and large, these variables are not "strategic" in nature. In contrast, the investigators argue that the decision to run in a specific year is heavily influenced by the potential candidate's perceived chances of winning his or her party's nomination and, if nominated, the general election. The researchers suggest an expected utility model that combines these strategic and longer-term consideration, along with the costs potential candidates must bear to make a run. The investigators carry out a two-stage study building on an earlier pilot study. The first stage involves a survey of informants in a national sample of U.S. districts. Informants who are politically aware of local affairs. They will provide information about the district, the incumbent, and about potential candidates who might run for the U.S. House of Representatives. The second stage involves surveying state legislators who districts overlap with the sample U.S House districts. This is the first investigation to identify and study a sample of strong potential candidates for the U.S. House and will enhance substantially our understanding of the factors that influence candidate emergence in congressional elections. ***ouse is an anttractive and die H Ho