Structural Covariates of Crime Rates: Studies of Invariance

长期以来，社会科学家一直试图解释 犯罪和个人受害的变化 个人，同样重要的是，跨越时间和空间。 尽管 大量关于犯罪结构协变量的研究 国家以下各级单位的费率已在 在过去的几十年里，人们对它的程度知之甚少。 在一项研究中发现的经验关系， 分析，并在一个特定的时间点推广到其他 其他时间点的分析水平。 迄今为止，大多数研究 专注于犯罪率的变化， 与特定样本相关的独特关联模式。 在这项研究中，兰德博士和科恩博士研究了 犯罪的结构性（经济、人口、社会）决定因素 跨聚合级别和时间的速率。 他们将使用一个 作为先前NSF项目的一部分创建的数据集，其中包含 关于七项联邦调查局指数犯罪和许多结构性犯罪的信息 1960年、1970年和1980年的协变量，以及 聚合（城市、SMSA、州）。 几种统计 技术将被用来测试的经验， 社会指标和犯罪率之间的关系。 的基础上 评估每个协变量的状态，额外考虑 工作将考虑可能的聚集 可能导致不同水平差异的效应。 这项研究应导致最全面的研究 这段时间美国的犯罪率 此外该 将要解决的问题是理论的基础 犯罪学研究的结构和方法。 作为 理论的贡献，这项研究将提供测试的 几个支持者提供的关系的恒定性 不同的因果取向。 作为对方法学的贡献， 它将展示基于回归的 对犯罪率的解释和高度使用毒品的问题 相关的措施来了解犯罪率的差异。 同时，通过考察，使研究实践更加丰富 面板模型和横截面模型之间的关系。

Social scientists have long sought to explain both the variation of criminality and personal victimization across individuals and, as importantly, across time and space. Despite the fact that numerous studies of structural covariates of crime rates for various subnational units have been published over the past several decades, little is known about the extent to which empirical relationships found in one study with one level of analysis and at one particular point in time generalize to other levels of analysis at other time points. To date, most studies focusing on crime rate variation have capitalized on rather unique patterns of association related to particular samples. In this research, Drs. Land and Cohen examine the social structural (economic, demographic, social) determinants of crime rates across levels of aggregation and time. They will use a data set created as part of a previous NSF project which contains information on seven FBI Index crimes and numerous structural covariates for 1960, 1970, and 1980 and at three levels of aggregation (cities, SMSA, states). Several statistical techniques will be used to test the empirical regularities between social indicators and crime rates. On the basis of an assessment of the status of each covariate, additional thought and work will go into consideration of possible aggregation effects that might account for discrepancies across the levels. The research should result in the most comprehensive study of crime rates in the U.S. over this period. In addition, the questions that will be addressed are fundamental to theory construction and methodology in criminological research. As a contribution to theory, the study will provide tests of the constancy in relationships offered by proponents of several different causal orientations. As a contribution to methodology, it will demonstrate the inherent limits to regression-based explanations of crime rates and the problem of using highly correlated measures to understand differences in crime rates. Also, the study should add to research practice by inspecting relationships between panel and cross-sectional models.