Structural Covariates of Crime Rates: Studies of Invariance

长期以来，社会科学家一直试图解释犯罪行为和个人受害行为在个体之间的差异，同样重要的是，在时间和空间之间的差异。尽管在过去几十年里发表了许多关于不同次国家单位的犯罪率结构协变量的研究，但很少有人知道，在一个特定时间点的一个分析水平的研究中发现的经验关系在多大程度上可以推广到其他时间点的其他分析水平。迄今为止，大多数关注犯罪率变化的研究都利用了与特定样本相关的相当独特的关联模式。在这项研究中，dr。Land和Cohen研究了跨越聚集水平和时间的犯罪率的社会结构（经济、人口、社会）决定因素。他们将使用作为NSF先前项目的一部分创建的数据集，该数据集包含1960年，1970年和1980年的七种FBI指数犯罪和许多结构协变量的信息，并在三个聚合级别（城市，SMSA，州）。将使用几种统计技术来检验社会指标与犯罪率之间的经验规律。在对每个协变量的状态进行评估的基础上，额外的思考和工作将考虑到可能导致不同水平差异的聚集效应。这项研究应该是对这一时期美国犯罪率最全面的研究。此外，将解决的问题是基本的理论建设和方法论的犯罪学研究。作为对理论的贡献，这项研究将为几种不同因果取向的支持者提供的关系的恒常性提供测试。作为对方法论的贡献，它将展示基于回归的犯罪率解释的固有局限性，以及使用高度相关的措施来了解犯罪率差异的问题。此外，本研究还应通过检验面板模型和横截面模型之间的关系来增加研究实践。

Social scientists have long sought to explain both the variation of criminality and personal victimization across individuals and, as importantly, across time and space. Despite the fact that numerous studies of structural covariates of crime rates for various subnational units have been published over the past several decades, little is known about the extent to which empirical relationships found in one study with one level of analysis and at one particular point in time generalize to other levels of analysis at other time points. To date, most studies focusing on crime rate variation have capitalized on rather unique patterns of association related to particular samples. In this research, Drs. Land and Cohen examine the social structural (economic, demographic, social) determinants of crime rates across levels of aggregation and time. They will use a data set created as part of a previous NSF project which contains information on seven FBI Index crimes and numerous structural covariates for 1960, 1970, and 1980 and at three levels of aggregation (cities, SMSA, states). Several statistical techniques will be used to test the empirical regularities between social indicators and crime rates. On the basis of an assessment of the status of each covariate, additional thought and work will go into consideration of possible aggregation effects that might account for discrepancies across the levels. The research should result in the most comprehensive study of crime rates in the U.S. over this period. In addition, the questions that will be addressed are fundamental to theory construction and methodology in criminological research. As a contribution to theory, the study will provide tests of the constancy in relationships offered by proponents of several different causal orientations. As a contribution to methodology, it will demonstrate the inherent limits to regression-based explanations of crime rates and the problem of using highly correlated measures to understand differences in crime rates. Also, the study should add to research practice by inspecting relationships between panel and cross-sectional models.