Public Earthquake Risk Perception and Response to Risk Communications

传播地震灾害和风险信息，以提高公众对灾害的认识，开展防灾减灾活动，是国家减少地震损失努力的组成部分。不幸的是，告知公众有关风险的努力和基于科学证据的关于如何最有效地实现这一目标的知识之间存在差距。对公众的风险教育/沟通与公众的风险认知和/或行为之间的联系进行的实证研究很少，所能得出的结论充其量也是不清楚的。这项研究是对加利福尼亚州一个多县地区公众对风险信息的反应(感知和行为)的综合研究，以响应那里关于帕克菲尔德地震预报的公共教育努力和风险沟通。研究将在三个学习社区进行。邮寄问卷将收集1200户家庭的相关数据。地震经验和距离对风险的影响将通过抽样设计进行评估。风险沟通因素对感知风险和行为的影响将通过统计分析来评估。这项研究中检验的假设将基于公共风险教育研究、警告研究和传播研究的结果的综合。帕克菲尔德地震预测实验已经在加利福尼亚州中部的大约六个县向公民传达了风险信息。这是美国第一次科学上可信的地震预测，其具体时间、地点、震级和概率都得到了国家和州预测委员会的批准。这为全面研究公共风险传播/教育效果提供了机会。

The communication of earthquake hazard and risk information to increase public hazard awareness and preparedness and mitigation activities is an integral part of the nation's effort to reduce earthquake losses. A gap exists, unfortunately, between efforts to inform the public about risk and knowledge based on scientific evidence about how this might most effectively be accomplished. Few empirical studies have ever been performed on the link between risk education/communication to the public and public risk perception and/or behavior, and the conclusions which can be drawn are, at best, unclear. This research is a comprehensive study of public response (perceptual and behavioral) to risk information in a multi-county area in California in response to public education efforts and risk communications there concerning the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction. Research will be performed in three study communities. Mail questionnaires will collect relevant data on 1200 households. The impact of earthquake experience and distance to risk will be assessed through the sampling design. The effect of risk communication factors on perceived risk and behavior will be assessed through statistical analysis. Hypotheses tested in this research will be based on a synthesis of findings that stem from public risk education research, warnings research and communications research. The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment has led to risk communications to citizens in some six central California counties. It is the first scientifically credible prediction for a quake in the U. S. with specified time, place, magnitude and probability that has been approved by national and state prediction councils. This provides an opportunity to study public risk communication/education effects comprehensively.