Public Earthquake Risk Perception and Response to Risk Communications

传播地震灾害和风险信息以提高公众对灾害的认识以及防备和减灾活动，是国家减少地震损失努力的一个组成部分。不幸的是，在向公众通报风险的努力与基于科学证据的关于如何最有效地做到这一点的知识之间存在着差距。很少有实证研究对公众的风险教育/沟通与公众风险认知和/或行为之间的联系进行过研究，所能得出的结论充其量是不明确的。本研究是对加州一个多县地区公众对风险信息的反应（感知和行为）的综合研究，以响应公众教育工作和风险沟通，其中涉及帕克菲尔德地震预测。研究将在三个研究社区进行。邮寄问卷将收集1200户家庭的相关数据。通过抽样设计评估地震经验和风险距离的影响。通过统计分析评估风险沟通因素对感知风险和行为的影响。本研究中检验的假设将基于公共风险教育研究、警告研究和传播研究的综合结果。帕克菲尔德地震预测实验已经向加州中部六个县的居民进行了风险沟通。这是美国第一个科学可信的地震预测，有明确的时间、地点、震级和概率，并得到了国家和州预测委员会的批准。这为全面研究公共风险沟通/教育效果提供了机会。

The communication of earthquake hazard and risk information to increase public hazard awareness and preparedness and mitigation activities is an integral part of the nation's effort to reduce earthquake losses. A gap exists, unfortunately, between efforts to inform the public about risk and knowledge based on scientific evidence about how this might most effectively be accomplished. Few empirical studies have ever been performed on the link between risk education/communication to the public and public risk perception and/or behavior, and the conclusions which can be drawn are, at best, unclear. This research is a comprehensive study of public response (perceptual and behavioral) to risk information in a multi-county area in California in response to public education efforts and risk communications there concerning the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction. Research will be performed in three study communities. Mail questionnaires will collect relevant data on 1200 households. The impact of earthquake experience and distance to risk will be assessed through the sampling design. The effect of risk communication factors on perceived risk and behavior will be assessed through statistical analysis. Hypotheses tested in this research will be based on a synthesis of findings that stem from public risk education research, warnings research and communications research. The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment has led to risk communications to citizens in some six central California counties. It is the first scientifically credible prediction for a quake in the U. S. with specified time, place, magnitude and probability that has been approved by national and state prediction councils. This provides an opportunity to study public risk communication/education effects comprehensively.