New Directions in Input-Output Modeling

自40年前开始发展以来，投入产出分析一直是研究各种地理尺度上的经济结构和动态的强大和适应性工具。最近的研究项目扩展了投入产出分析的概念化和使用方法，并开发了新的算法。该项目将继续开发投入产出分析的新用途，采取四条相关的调查路线。首先，将开发确定经济体基本经济结构的替代技术。这些技术将进行经验测试，并将根据这一概念对经济进行初步分类。其次，将通过分析和实证检验投入产出模型中系数的“影响范围”来检验经济结构变化的影响。第三，将对分解经济结构的替代形式进行实证研究，以便更有效地分析变化的性质和在整个经济系统中的传导。第四，将综合对基本经济结构、投入产出系数影响范围和经济分解的新理解，以考察技术发展和新创新扩散的模拟影响。这些分析将由来自美国、澳大利亚、以色列和韩国的合作调查人员进行。这项研究将增加理论知识和经验知识。进一步了解基本经济结构、系数的影响范围和经济分解的相关技术的加强，将使投入产出分析能够用于审查更广泛的问题，特别是与经济活动的变化和经济系统运行的功能环境有关的问题。由于这些新技术将用来自美国、加拿大、欧洲和澳大利亚的数据进行测试，这项工作可能会对这些地区的经济结构和关系产生新的见解，但从经验的角度来看，更重要的是改进方法，使其能够与其他地区的数据一起使用。

Since its initial development four decades ago, input-output analysis has been a powerful and adaptive tool for studying the structure and dynamics of economies at a variety of geographic scales. Recent research projects have expanded the ways in which input-output analyses have been conceptualized and used, and new algorithms have been developed. This project will continue the development of new uses for input-output analysis by pursuing four related lines of inquiry. First, alternative techniques for identifying the fundamental economic structure of economies will be developed. These techniques will be empirically tested, and an initial classification of economies based on this concept will be undertaken. Second, the impacts of changes in economic structures will be examined by analyzing and empirically testing "fields of influence" of coefficients within input-output models. Third, alternative forms of decomposing economic structures will be empirically studied in order to more effectively analyze the nature and transmission of change throughout economic systems. Fourth, new understandings of fundamental economic structure, fields of influence of input-output coefficients, and economic decompositions will be synthesized to examine the simulated impacts of technological development and the diffusion of new innovations. These analyses will be undertaken by collaborating investigators from the U.S., Australia, Israel, and Korea. This research will increase both theoretical and empirical knowledge. The related enhancement of techniques to further understandings of fundamental economic structure, fields of influence of coefficients, and economic decompositions will enable input-output analyses to be used to examine a broader range of problems, especially issues related to changes in economic activities and to the functional settings in which economic systems operate. Because these new techniques will be tested with data from the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Australia, new insights on economic structure and relationships in those locales will likely result from this work, but even more important from an empirical standpoint will be refinement of methods that will enable their use with data from other regions.