Analysis of Lifeline Damages and Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Development of an Integrated Economic-Engineering Assessment Model

建议：CMS-0099724PI：Geoffrey Hewings机构：伊利诺伊大学香槟分校日期：2001年5月25日ABSTRACT CMS0099724“地震生命线破坏和经济影响的分析：开发综合经济-工程评估模型研究将由美国(伊利诺伊大学/纽约州立大学@Buffalo)和日本(电力工业中央研究院)的同事进行，三年多来，他们一直在合作开发两国的区域和区域间经济影响和预测模型。将建立一个综合的经济-工程模型，以估计地震的间接影响，并模拟恢复活动及其全系统影响。该项目将建立在最近完成的一系列模型的基础上，包括评估城市地区生命线破坏的工程模型，以及评估地震在城市、区域和区域间背景下的间接影响和影响的经济模型。重点关注工程模型和经济模型的集成，系统地将两种不同建模方案之间的时间、空间和破坏联系在一起。一旦完成，分析将集中在以下政策影响上：a)生命线系统改造策略的评估；b)应急管理计划的敏感性分析；c)地震下生命线设施的生命周期评估。所构建的综合模型还将提供区域间经济影响的传播路径、物质损失与经济影响之间的关系以及以生产年表为重点的经济影响的时间序列分析。区域间的重点来自城市地区；日益依赖外部市场作为投入来源以及城市地区生产的商品和服务的消费目的地。主要贡献将在于整合不同的工程和经济建模范例的方式、可从其他国家的经验中学习的观点以及为协助恢复工作而需要探讨的关键联系的确定。

Proposal: CMS - 0099724PI: Geoffrey HewingsInstitution: University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignDate: May 25, 2001ABSTRACT CMS0099724 "Analysis of Lifeline Damages and Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Development of an Integrated Economic-Engineering Assessment ModelResearch will be carried out by the colleagues in the U.S. (University of Illinois/SUNY @ Buffalo) and Japan (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), who have been collaborating on the development of regional and interregional economic impact and forecasting models for both countries for over three years.An integrated economic-engineering model will be cdonstructed to estimate the indirect impacts of an earthquake and to simulate recovery activities and its system-wide effects. The project will build on a set of recently completed models, including an engineering model for assessing the lifeline damages in an urban area and economic models for estimating the indirect impacts and effects of an earthquake in urban, regional, and interregional contexts. Attention is directed to the integration of the engineering model and economic models, systematically connecting time, space, and the damages between two different modeling schem3s.Once completed, analysis will focus on the following policy implications: a) evaluation of retrofit strategies on lifeline systems; b) sensitivity analysis of emergency management plans; and c) life cycle assessment of lifeline facilities aganist earthquakes. The constructed integrated model will also provide the information on the propagation paths of the economic impacts in an interregional context, the relationshop between physical damages and economic impacts, and the time series analysis of the economics impacts focusing on production chronologies. The interregional focus derives from urban areas; increasing dependence on external marketsfor sources of inputs and as destinations for the consumption of goods and services produced in the urban area. The major contributions will lie in the way in which different engineering and economic modeling paradigms are integrated, the perspectives that can be learned from experience in other countries and the identification of crwitical linkages that needs to be explored to assist in recovery efforts.