Analysis of Lifeline Damages and Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Development of an Integrated Economic-Engineering Assessment Model

地震生命线损害和经济影响分析：开发综合经济工程评估模型

• 批准号: 0099724
• 负责人: Geoffrey J Hewings
• 金额: $ 25.96万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-09-01 至 2004-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0099724&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Analysis; Lifeline; Damages; Economic; Impacts

Proposal: CMS - 0099724PI: Geoffrey HewingsInstitution: University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignDate: May 25, 2001ABSTRACT CMS0099724 "Analysis of Lifeline Damages and Economic Impacts of an Earthquake: Development of an Integrated Economic-Engineering Assessment ModelResearch will be carried out by the colleagues in the U.S. (University of Illinois/SUNY @ Buffalo) and Japan (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry), who have been collaborating on the development of regional and interregional economic impact and forecasting models for both countries for over three years.An integrated economic-engineering model will be cdonstructed to estimate the indirect impacts of an earthquake and to simulate recovery activities and its system-wide effects. The project will build on a set of recently completed models, including an engineering model for assessing the lifeline damages in an urban area and economic models for estimating the indirect impacts and effects of an earthquake in urban, regional, and interregional contexts. Attention is directed to the integration of the engineering model and economic models, systematically connecting time, space, and the damages between two different modeling schem3s.Once completed, analysis will focus on the following policy implications: a) evaluation of retrofit strategies on lifeline systems; b) sensitivity analysis of emergency management plans; and c) life cycle assessment of lifeline facilities aganist earthquakes. The constructed integrated model will also provide the information on the propagation paths of the economic impacts in an interregional context, the relationshop between physical damages and economic impacts, and the time series analysis of the economics impacts focusing on production chronologies. The interregional focus derives from urban areas; increasing dependence on external marketsfor sources of inputs and as destinations for the consumption of goods and services produced in the urban area. The major contributions will lie in the way in which different engineering and economic modeling paradigms are integrated, the perspectives that can be learned from experience in other countries and the identification of crwitical linkages that needs to be explored to assist in recovery efforts.

提案：CMS - 0099724PI：Geoffrey Hewings机构：伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校日期：2001年5月25日摘要CMS0099724“地震的生命线损害和经济影响分析：综合经济工程评估模型的开发研究将由美国同事进行（伊利诺伊大学/纽约州立大学@ 布法罗）和日本（中央电力工业研究所）三年多来一直在合作开发两国的区域和区域间经济影响和预测模型。将构建一个综合经济工程模型来估计地震的间接影响并模拟恢复活动及其全系统影响。 该项目将建立在一组最近完成的模型的基础上，包括用于评估生命线损害的工程模型 用于估计地震在城市、区域和区域间背景下的间接影响和影响的城市地区和经济模型。 重点关注工程模型和经济模型的整合，系统地连接两种不同建模方案之间的时间、空间和损害。完成后，分析将重点关注以下政策含义： a）生命线系统改造策略评估； b) 应急管理计划的敏感性分析；和 c) 抗震生命线设施的生命周期评估。 构建的综合模型还将提供区域间经济影响的传播路径、物理损害与经济影响之间的关系以及以生产年代为重点的经济影响的时间序列分析等信息。 区域间的重点来自城市地区；日益依赖外部市场作为投入来源和消费目的地 城市地区生产的商品和服务。 主要贡献在于不同工程和经济建模范式的整合方式、可以从其他国家的经验中学习的观点以及确定需要探索以协助恢复工作的关键联系。