Analysis of Global Atmospheric Responses to Externally and Internally Driven Global Circuit Variability

此前获得资助的研究表明，北半球冬季气旋的强度随着全球大气电路中电流(JZ)的变化而变化，由于太阳风的作用，这些变化是由几个独立的外部发电机驱动的。外部驱动力是宇宙射线通量的变化，太阳风磁扇区交界处(现在称为日层电流片，或HCS交叉点，与几天的低太阳风速周期有关)处降水的相对论电子通量的减少；以及太阳质子事件。研究还表明，南极和北极的地面气压都对穿透极冠的太阳风电场做出响应。两个极冠的气压响应是相反的，每个极冠对太阳风电场的JZ响应是相反的。另一个结果是，7个北极站和11个南极站的地面气压在几个百帕的水平上对全球环流(低纬、高带电对流云)内部发电机的日常变化做出了响应。观测结果与一个概念模型是一致的，即JZ根据高斯定律，在与层云顶部液滴浓度梯度相关的电导率梯度中沉积正电荷，并在这种云的底部类似地沉积负电荷。这种电荷附着在液滴和气溶胶粒子上，包括云凝结核(CCN)和结冰核(IFN)，并影响这些和其他气溶胶粒子被云滴清除的速度，并可能导致云量、降水和大气辐射平衡的变化。该项目将通过检查南半球的气象数据来测试与JZ变化有关的气旋变异性，从而将研究扩展到南半球。将检查对太阳风速的观测，以确定速度的降低，这将表明由概念模型所建议的相对论电子降水引起的变化，而不是日球层电流片的交叉，以增进对这些联系的理解。另一个组成部分是使用最近20年的数据，重新检查银河系宇宙线流量福布什下降的气象响应。该概念模式将用于预测由于JZ内部产生的变化而产生的冬季风暴的涡度，以及云量和降水变化的响应。这些由层云中的电荷引起的大气动力学变化目前都没有包括在全球预报或气候模型中。作为这一项目的结果，根据对主要生成区域的雷暴活动的预报和对影响JZ的空间天气的预报，对冬季风暴强度的日常预报可能会得到改进。

Previous funded research has shown that the strength of winter cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere varies with changes in the current flow (Jz) in the global atmospheric electric circuit, driven by several independent external generators due to the solar wind. The external drivers are changes in cosmic ray flux, reductions in precipitating relativistic electron flux at solar wind magnetic sector boundary crossings, (now called heliospheric current sheet, or HCS crossings, that are associated with periods of several days of low solar wind speed); and solar proton events.The research also showed that surface pressure in both the Antarctic and Arctic responds to the solar wind electric field that penetrates into the polar caps. The pressure responses are opposite in the two polar caps, following the opposite Jz responses to the solar wind electric field in each polar cap. Another result was that the surface pressures in 7 Arctic stations and 11 Antarctic stations show responses at the level of a few hPa to the day-to-day changes in the internal generators of the global circuit (low latitude, highly electrified convective cloud). The observational results are consistent with a conceptual model in which Jz deposits positive charge in the conductivity gradients associated with droplet concentration gradients at the tops of layer clouds, and deposits negative charge similarly at the bases of such clouds, in accordance with Gauss's Law. This charge attaches to droplets and aerosol particles, including cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice forming nuclei (IFN) and affects the rate at which these and other aerosol particles are scavenged by cloud droplets, and can lead to changes in cloud cover, precipitation, and the atmospheric radiation balance. This project will extend the research to the southern hemisphere by examining meteorological data for the southern hemisphere to test for cyclone variability related to Jz changes. Observations of the solar wind speeds will be examined for decreases in the speed which will indicate changes induced by relativistic electron precipitation, as suggested by the conceptual model, rather than heliospheric current sheet crossings, to improve the understanding of these links. Another component is to re-examine the meteorological responses to Forbush decreases of the galactic cosmic ray flux, using 20 years of more recent data. The conceptual model will be used to predict the vorticity of winter storms due to internally generated changes in Jz, as well as the responses of cloud cover and precipitation changes. None of these changes in atmospheric dynamics induced by electric charge in layer clouds are currently included in global forecast or climate models. As a result of this project, day-to-day forecasts of winter storm strength may be improved, based on forecasts of thunderstorm activity in the main generating regions, and forecasts of space weather, that affect Jz.