The Macroeconomics of the Interwar Period

尽管历史学家（包括经济历史学家）和其他人对大萧条的主题进行了大量研究，但令人惊讶的是，自几年前特明（Temin, 1976）与弗里德曼和施瓦茨（Schwartz, 1963）之争以来，宏观经济学家在这方面的著述少之又少。在此期间，20世纪30年代事件引发的宏观经济问题（如股市波动、银行倒闭、国内和国际债务问题以及保护主义压力的实际影响）变得更加紧迫。与此同时，宏观经济学领域的一系列创新研究侵蚀了早期的主流共识，降低了我们对大萧条的公认解释的信心。该提案要求为一项长期项目的头两年提供资金，该项目旨在对两次世界大战之间的时期（1919-1941）进行详细和综合的分析。最初的重点是根据对主要和次要历史材料的审查，编制一份两次世界大战之间数据来源的目录。接下来，注意力转移到两组实质性问题的研究上。首先，金融中介过程的明显崩溃在大萧条的开始和蔓延中起了什么作用？将尽可能使用小组数据，审议金融中介机构（银行、储蓄和贷款）和私人债务人的问题来源和对危机的反应。第二，两次世界大战期间总供给的决定因素是什么？这里要考虑的主要问题包括持续的失业，新政在1933-37年经济复苏中的作用，以及这一时期实际工资和生产率的反常行为。这项研究将对提高我们对大萧条时代的理解作出重大贡献。同样重要的是，它证明了这一时期作为检验现代宏观经济理论和政策观点的“实验室”的价值。

Despite an outpouring of work by historians (including economic historians) and others on the subject of the Great Depression, macroeconomists have written surprisingly little on it since Temin (1976) versus Friedman and Schwartz (1963) debate of some years ago. During the hiatus, the macroeconomic issues raised by the events of the 1930s (such as the real effects of stock market volatility, bank failures, domestic and international debt problems, and protectionist pressures) have become more rather than less pressing. At the same time a stream of innovative research in macroeconomics has eroded the earlier mainstream consensus and reduced our confidence in received explanations of the Great Depression. This proposal requests funding for the first two years of a longer-term project to make a detailed and integrated analysis of the interwar period (1919-1941). The initial focus is on the development of a catalogue of sources of interwar data based on a review of primary and secondary historical materials. Attention shifts next to the study of two sets of substantive questions. First, what was the role of the apparent breakdown of the financial intermediation process in the initiation and propagation of the Depression ? The sources of problems and responses to crisis both of financial intermediaries (banks, savings and loans) and of private debtors, will be considered, using panel data wherever possible. Second, what were the determinants of aggregate supply during the interwar period ? Principal issues to be considered here include the persistence of unemployment, the role of the New Deal in the 1933-37 recovery, and the somewhat anomalous behavior during this period of real wages and productivity. This research should contribute significantly toward improving our understanding of the Great Depression era. Equally important, is the demonstration which it promises, of the value of this period as a "laboratory" for testing modern views about macroeconomic theory and policy.