The Macroeconomics of the Interwar Period

尽管历史学家（包括经济学家）的大量工作， 历史学家）和其他人对大萧条的主题， 自那以后，宏观经济学家对此的论述少得令人吃惊。 Temin（1976）与Friedman和Schwartz（1963）的辩论 年前 在此期间，宏观经济问题引起了 20世纪30年代的事件（如股票的真实的影响） 市场波动，银行倒闭，国内和国际 债务问题和保护主义压力）变得越来越多， 而不是不那么紧迫。 与此同时， 宏观经济学的创新研究已经削弱了早期的 主流的共识，降低了我们的信心， 大萧条的解释。 该提案要求为一个项目的头两年提供资金， 一个长期的项目，以作出详细和综合分析， 两次世界大战之间的时期（1919-1941）。 最初的重点是 编制一份根据《联合国宪章》编制的 第一次和第二次历史材料的审查。 关注 接下来转向研究两组实质性问题。 第一，政府的明显崩溃 金融中介过程中的启动和 大萧条的蔓延？ 问题的根源和 金融中介机构（银行， 储蓄和贷款）和私人债务人，将被考虑， 尽可能使用面板数据。 第二， 两次世界大战期间总供给的决定因素？ 这里要考虑的主要问题包括： 失业，新政在1933- 1937年复苏中的作用， 在这段真实的时期的反常行为 工资和生产力。 这项研究将有助于改善 我们对大萧条时期的理解。 同样 重要的是它所承诺的价值的证明， 作为一个“实验室”来测试现代的观点， 宏观经济理论与政策。

Despite an outpouring of work by historians (including economic historians) and others on the subject of the Great Depression, macroeconomists have written surprisingly little on it since Temin (1976) versus Friedman and Schwartz (1963) debate of some years ago. During the hiatus, the macroeconomic issues raised by the events of the 1930s (such as the real effects of stock market volatility, bank failures, domestic and international debt problems, and protectionist pressures) have become more rather than less pressing. At the same time a stream of innovative research in macroeconomics has eroded the earlier mainstream consensus and reduced our confidence in received explanations of the Great Depression. This proposal requests funding for the first two years of a longer-term project to make a detailed and integrated analysis of the interwar period (1919-1941). The initial focus is on the development of a catalogue of sources of interwar data based on a review of primary and secondary historical materials. Attention shifts next to the study of two sets of substantive questions. First, what was the role of the apparent breakdown of the financial intermediation process in the initiation and propagation of the Depression ? The sources of problems and responses to crisis both of financial intermediaries (banks, savings and loans) and of private debtors, will be considered, using panel data wherever possible. Second, what were the determinants of aggregate supply during the interwar period ? Principal issues to be considered here include the persistence of unemployment, the role of the New Deal in the 1933-37 recovery, and the somewhat anomalous behavior during this period of real wages and productivity. This research should contribute significantly toward improving our understanding of the Great Depression era. Equally important, is the demonstration which it promises, of the value of this period as a "laboratory" for testing modern views about macroeconomic theory and policy.