Combining and Using Vague and Precise Information for Decision Making

先前的研究表明，以语言形式传达关于不确定性的信息并不一定会导致不如基于数字概率估计做出的决定。这项研究将建立在早期工作的基础上，研究决策者（DM）如何结合和使用关于不确定性的模糊和精确的信息。模糊信息通常来自稀疏的、间接的或不可靠的观察，并且通常是通过语言来传达的（例如，在情报分析人员对某一特定事件可能发生的预测中）。精确的信息通常是直接相对频率数据的结果，并且经常以数字形式传达（例如，在历史数据的基础上预测设备部件的故障率）。本研究将开发两种新的现实决策范式，允许DM控制可获得信息的性质和程度。在所有情况下，DM将在包含不确定事件发生的结果的彩票中进行选择或竞标。在一种范式中，事件将包括事实性声明是真的（而不是假的）。通过选择合适的事实域，可以操纵dm对索赔的不确定性的性质。在另一种范式中，事件将包括物体沿着计算机屏幕上的轨道移动并到达目标（而不是被轨道上的障碍物阻止）。在这里，不确定性的性质将由屏幕上的感知特征和dm被允许拥有的特定或相关对象的经验量来操纵。这些范例中的实验将研究，作为不确定性本质的功能，注意力如何分配到决策问题的不同组成部分，决策决策者如何将他们的先验信念与新信息结合起来，以及他们如何将不同精度和可靠性的判断结合起来。除了该研究在理解人类决策行为和影响其最优性的因素方面的理论作用外，它还与人类决策经理被要求至少部分地基于间接信息和他人考虑的判断做出选择的情况有关。空间探索、核电站选址和危险废物的处置只是这类情况的几个例子。这项研究的发现可能有助于开发更优化的沟通和决策程序。此外，这项研究将有助于开发计算机化的决策辅助专家系统，试图代表人类对语言变量和模糊信息的理解。

Previous research has suggested that conveying information about uncertainty in linguistic form does not necessarily lead to decisions that are inferior to those made on the basis of numerical probability estimates. This research will build upon the earlier work by studying how a decision maker (DM) combines and uses vague and precise information about uncertainty. Vague information generally arises from sparse, indirect, or unreliable observations, and often is communicated linguistically (for example, in a forecast by an intelligence analyst that a particular event is likely to happen). Precise information is generally the result of direct relative frequency data, and often is communicated numerically (for example, in predicting failure rates of equipment parts on the basis of historical data). This research will develop two new realistic decision paradigms that allow control over the nature and degree of information available to the DM. In all cases, DMs will choose among or bid for lotteries involving outcomes contingent on the occurrence of uncertain events. In one paradigm the events will consist of factual claims being true (rather than false). The nature of the DMs' uncertainty about the claims will be manipulated by selecting suitable factual domains. In the other paradigm the events will consist of objects moving along tracks on a computer screen and reaching targets (rather than being stopped by a barrier on the track). Here the nature of the uncertainty will be manipulated by the perceptual features on the screen and the amount of experience DMs are allowed to have with the particular or related objects. Experiments within these paradigms will investigate, as a function of the nature of the uncertainty, how attention is allocated to the different components of a decision problem, how DMs combine their prior beliefs with new information, and how they combine judgments of differential precision and reliability. In addition to the theoretical role of this research in understanding human decision behavior and factors that affect its optimality, it is relevant to situations in which human DMs are required to make choices at least in part on the basis of indirect information and considered judgments by other people. Space exploration, nuclear power plant sitings, and the disposal of hazardous wastes are just a few examples of such situations. Findings from this research may allow the development of more optimal communication and decision procedures. In addition, the research will assist in the development of computerized decision aiding expert systems that attempt to represent human understanding of linguistic variables and vague information.