Combining and Using Vague and Precise Information for Decision Making

先前的研究表明，传达有关 语言形式的不确定性并不一定导致 比那些基于以下原因做出的决定更差的决定 数值概率估计 这项研究将建立在 通过研究决策者（DM）如何结合 并使用关于不确定性的模糊和精确的信息。 模糊 信息通常来自稀疏、间接或不可靠的 观察，并经常是沟通的语言（为 例如，在情报分析师的预测中， 可能发生的事件）。 确切的资料 通常是直接相对频率数据的结果， 以数字方式传达（例如，在预测故障时 根据历史数据计算的设备零件费率）。 本研究将发展出两种新的现实决策范式 允许控制信息的性质和程度 可供DM使用。 在所有情况下，DM将选择或出价 对于涉及取决于以下事件发生的结果的彩票， 不确定的事件。 在一个范例中，事件将包括 事实上的主张是真实的（而不是虚假的）。 的性质 DM对索赔的不确定性将被操纵， 选择合适的事实域。 在另一个范例中， 事件将由计算机上沿沿着移动的对象组成 屏幕和达到目标（而不是被一个 在轨道上的障碍）。 在这里，不确定性的性质将 被屏幕上的感知特征操纵， 允许DM在特定的 或相关物体。 在这些范例中的实验将调查，作为一个 不确定性的性质的函数，如何注意 分配给决策问题的不同组成部分，如何 话语标记联合收割机将他们先前的信念与新的信息相结合，以及如何结合 它们结合了对差动精度和可靠性的联合收割机判断。 除了这项研究的理论作用， 了解人类决策行为及其影响因素 最优性，它与人类话语标记的情况有关， 必须至少部分地根据以下方面做出选择： 间接的信息和其他人的判断。 太空探索，核电站选址， 危险废物的排放只是此类情况的几个例子。 这项研究的结果可能会让更多的发展 最佳沟通和决策程序。此外该 研究将有助于计算机决策的发展。 帮助试图代表人类的专家系统 对语言变量和模糊信息的理解。

Previous research has suggested that conveying information about uncertainty in linguistic form does not necessarily lead to decisions that are inferior to those made on the basis of numerical probability estimates. This research will build upon the earlier work by studying how a decision maker (DM) combines and uses vague and precise information about uncertainty. Vague information generally arises from sparse, indirect, or unreliable observations, and often is communicated linguistically (for example, in a forecast by an intelligence analyst that a particular event is likely to happen). Precise information is generally the result of direct relative frequency data, and often is communicated numerically (for example, in predicting failure rates of equipment parts on the basis of historical data). This research will develop two new realistic decision paradigms that allow control over the nature and degree of information available to the DM. In all cases, DMs will choose among or bid for lotteries involving outcomes contingent on the occurrence of uncertain events. In one paradigm the events will consist of factual claims being true (rather than false). The nature of the DMs' uncertainty about the claims will be manipulated by selecting suitable factual domains. In the other paradigm the events will consist of objects moving along tracks on a computer screen and reaching targets (rather than being stopped by a barrier on the track). Here the nature of the uncertainty will be manipulated by the perceptual features on the screen and the amount of experience DMs are allowed to have with the particular or related objects. Experiments within these paradigms will investigate, as a function of the nature of the uncertainty, how attention is allocated to the different components of a decision problem, how DMs combine their prior beliefs with new information, and how they combine judgments of differential precision and reliability. In addition to the theoretical role of this research in understanding human decision behavior and factors that affect its optimality, it is relevant to situations in which human DMs are required to make choices at least in part on the basis of indirect information and considered judgments by other people. Space exploration, nuclear power plant sitings, and the disposal of hazardous wastes are just a few examples of such situations. Findings from this research may allow the development of more optimal communication and decision procedures. In addition, the research will assist in the development of computerized decision aiding expert systems that attempt to represent human understanding of linguistic variables and vague information.