COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Understanding, Improving, and Combining Subjective Judgments

9601281由于缺乏适当的统计信息，许多不确定情况下的决定取决于专家的判断。例如，军事和国际政策背景、商业预测、医疗诊断和地震预测。专家们并不总是彼此同意，也不总是以最能反映他们潜在观点的方式表达自己的观点。这项研究将开发新的和改进的程序，以得出并结合他们的判断，以产生最准确和诊断性的结论。该项目将调查在不完全知识条件下影响人类判断的因素。这项研究还将为这种判断开发新的分析程序，其中考虑到通常存在的随机误差分量的来源和性质。该项目中的一行将会问，如果人们普遍真的过于自信，为什么在特定的分析程序和方法下，他们表现出系统性的不自信。第二行将探讨为什么，至少在一些判断任务中，人们思考不确定信息的方式取决于他们被要求给出的反应类型。第三行将调查人们如何学习做出概率估计，以及反馈如何影响这些估计。这三条研究路线的目标都是开发一种在不确定情况下人类信息处理的认知模型，该模型适用于广泛的情况，并且可以用数学表示。待开发的数学模型的一个应用是作为组合多个主观估计的基础。第四条工作线将追求这一目标。这种做法是新颖的，因为没有任何其他办法来处理合并判决问题，依赖于个别法官的模式。***

9601281 WALLSTEN Many decisions under uncertainty depend on expert judgments, because suitable statistical information is lacking. Examples include military and international policy contexts, business forecasting, medical diagnosis, and earthquake prediction. Experts do not always agree with each other, nor do they always express themselves in ways that best reflect their underlying opinions. This research will develop new and improved procedures for eliciting and combining their judgments to yield the most accurate and diagnostic conclusions. The project will investigate factors that affect human judgment under conditions of incomplete knowledge. The research also will develop new analytic procedures for such judgments, which take into account the sources and nature of the random error components that are normally present. One line of the project will ask why, if people are generally truly overconfident, they appear systematically underconfident given specific procedures and methods of analysis. A second line will explore why, at least for some judgment tasks, the way in which people think about uncertain information depends on the type of response they are required to give. A third line will investigate how people learn to make probability estimates and how feedback affects those estimates. The goal of all three lines of research is to develop a cognitive model of human information processing under uncertainty that applies to a broad range of situations, and can be expressed mathematically. One application of the mathematical model to be developed is to serve as a basis for combining multiple subjective estimates. A fourth line of work will pursue this goal. This approach is novel, as no other approach to the issue of combining judgments has depended on a model of the individual judge. ***