Models of Uncertainty Due to Lack of Knowledge

由于缺乏知识而导致的不确定性模型

• 批准号: 9222159
• 负责人: Thomas Wallsten
• 金额: $ 27.01万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-04-01 至 1997-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9222159&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Models; Uncertainty; Due; Lack; Knowledge

This research will investigate how people make judgments about the truth of statements when they have only incomplete knowledge. The problem arises very frequently in areas ranging from business to public policy to personal matters. As examples, an intelligence analyst may be asked for a probability judgment of whether Boris Yeltsin will remain in power in Russia for the next six months, an EPA official may have to set a pollution standard for a substance based on sparse knowledge of its health effects, or a physician may have to select a treatment plan given inconclusive medical data. The work will focus primarily on the cognitive processes of judgment and response selection. The research will develop psychological theories, based on prior work, that can be expressed as mathematical models, test these theories and models empirically, and modify them accordingly. The models will provide a framework for distinguishing the subjective degree of confidence one has that a proposition is true from the overt decision or response one makes or provides to someone else. One's degree of confidence depends on what one knows about the topic area, as well as on how that knowledge is organized and searched, whereas the response selection depends on motivational and related factors. One question this research will investigate concerns the relationships among certain documented phenomena. One is a covert bias to think statements are true. The other is an additional bias to call statements true relative to one's covert judgment (when the response options are limited to true or false), but not a bias to assign probabilities that statements are true (when the response options are numbers from 0 to 100). Another question concerns how a person's strategy for searching his or her knowledge base depends on the specific form and sequence of the judgment tasks that he or she faces. Additional issues the research will investigate include differences in judging past versus future events, the comparison of confidence in the truth of statements across knowledge domains, payoff effects on judgment and responding, and effects of degree and organization of knowledge on judgment. The long-range goal of the work is to improve the quality of judgments. It should become possible to combine the mathematical models of judgment to be developed in this work with derived measures of performance either to improve accuracy or to calibrate it in a manner that suitable corrections can be imposed.

这项研究将调查人们如何对 当他们只有不完整的知识时，他们的陈述是真实的。 的 问题经常出现在从商业到 从公共政策到个人事务 举个例子， 分析师可能会被要求对鲍里斯是否 叶利钦将在未来6个月内继续执政， 环保署官员可能不得不为一种物质设定污染标准 基于对它的健康影响的稀疏知识，或者医生可以 不得不选择一个治疗方案给出不确定的医疗数据。 这项工作将主要集中在认知过程中， 判断和反应选择。 这项研究将发展 心理学理论，基于先前的工作，可以表达 作为数学模型，从经验上检验这些理论和模型， 并相应地修改它们。 这些模型将提供一个框架 为了区分主观置信度， 一个命题从一个人做出的公开决定或回应来看是正确的 或者提供给别人 一个人的自信程度取决于 一个人对主题领域的了解，以及如何 知识被组织和搜索，而响应选择 取决于动机和相关因素。 这项研究将调查的一个问题是， 某些有记录的现象之间的关系。 一个是隐蔽的 偏见认为陈述是真实的。 另一个是附加偏误 ”（《说文》卷一）：“言之以实，言之以虚。 回答选项仅限于真或假），但不偏向于 分配陈述为真的概率（当响应 选项是从0到100的数字）。 另一个问题是，一个人搜索自己的大脑的策略 或者她的知识基础取决于 他或她所面临的判断任务。 其他问题 研究将调查包括对过去的判断差异 与未来事件相比， 跨知识领域的陈述，对判断的回报效应， 知识的程度和组织对 判断 这项工作的长远目标是提高 判断。 将联合收割机的数学 模型的判断，以开发在这项工作中与衍生 性能指标，以提高准确性或校准 它以一种可以施加适当校正的方式。