Cohort Replacement and Social Change: A Systematic Analysisof Recent Trends in the U.S.

本研究旨在探讨影响儿童健康的代际因素， 影响态度、观点和价值观的社会变化。 政策制定者和社会观察家往往认为， 大社会内部的变化必然源于 个人价值观、态度和意见的变化。 但还有另一种可能性：变化可能源于 队列更替，即高龄出生的更替 队列（例如，那些出生于1890年代的人） 1.（例如，1960年代出生的人）。 实际上 有充分的理由相信， 最近美国公众舆论变化的一个重要来源 在种族隔离等各种问题上， 妇女的作用，以及政府官员是否可以 被信任 然而，这种可能性并没有系统地 考察 为了确定队列替换的贡献， to recent最近social社会change变革in the U.S.，本研究采用 关于社会和政治问题的年度和两年期调查数据 在过去的25-30年里收集的美国人的态度。 一 一系列重要和有争议的问题将在 审查，包括政治态度，宗教信仰 和做法，邻里，等等），态度， 堕胎和对女性角色的态度。 结果 将对决策者和社会 科学家们，因为关于队列替换的知识 影响可以帮助我们确定未来的可能方向 社会变革 例如，如果反对学校 融入社会的主要是年龄较大的群体， 那么随着这些同伙的死亡，反对派应该会平息下来。

This study proposes to examine the generational factors that affect social changes in attitudes, opinions, and values. Policy makers and social observers often assume that social change within the larger society necessarily stems from changes in the values, attitudes and opinions of individuals. But there is another possibility: change could stem from cohort replacement, that is, the replacement of older birth cohorts (for example, those born in the 1890s) with later ones (for example, those born in the 1960s). In fact, there are good reasons to believe that cohort replacement has been an important source of recent change in U.S. public opinion on such diverse issues as racial segregation, the proper roles for women, and whether or not government officials can be trusted. Yet that possibility has not been systematically examined. In an attempt to determine cohort replacement's contribution to recent social change in the U.S., this research uses annual and bicennial survey data on social and political attitudes in the U.S. collected over the last 25-30 years. A wide span of important and controversial issues will be examined, including political attitudes, religious beliefs and practices, neighborhood, and so on), attitudes about abortion, and attitudes about women's roles. The results will be useful to policymakers as well as to social scientists, because knowledge about cohort replacement effects can help us determine the likely direction of future social change. For example, if opposition to school integration is found predominantly among the older cohorts, then that opposition should subside as those cohorts die off.