Southern California Earthquake Center

南加州大学与加州理工学院、加州大学洛杉矶分校、加州大学圣巴巴拉分校、加州大学圣地亚哥分校、加州大学圣克鲁斯分校、哥伦比亚大学拉蒙特-多尔蒂地质观测站和美国地质调查局合作提出了这项建议，请求资金建立一个名为南加州地震中心的科学技术中心。中心的科学主任将由Keiiti Aki教授担任中心的执行主任将由Thomas Henyey教授担任。该中心的目标是了解地震的物理性质，制定一个框架，将地震信息转化为减轻灾害的社会效益，在南加州实现时空相关概率灾害分析的原型应用。并通过破裂的数值模拟、断层几何的地质场测绘、三维断层面的地下成像以及断层破裂物理的理论和统计方法的应用，在地震发生前描述地震破裂。这种方法是开发主模型的关键，主模型是一个框架，在这个框架中，地质、大地测量、地球物理、与南加州地震有关的地震学信息将被整合起来，以便对该地区进行时空相关的概率危害分析，该分析可用于预测强地面运动的水平。该中心的活动可分为四个主要领域：数据库维护、建模和模型构建、模型维护以及模型的解释和使用。将组织研究小组开发主模型的每个技术组成部分。核心活动包括：建立实时地震数据采集、数据存档和分发以及数据检索服务的数据中心；断层特定的地球物理、大地测量和地质实地研究；利用现有和新的短周期网络数据进行分析，改进活动断层的圈定；建立地震过程的物理模型，为特征地震模型奠定物理基础；强地震动预测的震源、路径和场地效应研究；区域构造，并在一个容易液化和/或滑坡的地区开始一项试验性岩土工程项目的概念性研究。许多工业化国家生活在地震多发地区，如环太平洋地区和阿尔卑斯-喜马拉雅地带。地震带通常提供最适宜居住的气候和最丰富的自然资源。因此，随着这些地区人口密度和财富集中度的增加，地震的风险也在增加。减轻地震灾害对社会越来越重要——仅1989年洛马普列塔地震就造成了70多亿美元的损失和66人死亡。只有通过了解这一过程，才能对可能发生破坏性地震的时间和地点作出可靠的预测。该中心将促进加强大学前教育和人力资源开发方面的活动。

This proposal from the University of Southern California, in cooperation with the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, Los Angeles, the University of California, Santa Barbara, the University of California, San Diego, the University of California, Santa Cruz, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University, and the U.S. Geological Survey, requests funds to establish a Science and Technology Center entitled Southern California Earthquake Center. The Science Director of the Center will be Professor Keiiti Aki and the Executive Director of the Center will be Professor Thomas Henyey. The goal of the Center is to understand the physics of earthquakes, to develop a framework to integrate earthquake information of translation into hazard mitigation for societal benefit, to achieve a prototype application of a time-space dependent probabilistic hazard analysis for southern California, and to characterize earthquake ruptures before their occurrence through numerical modeling of rupture, geological field mapping of fault geometry, subsurface imaging of three-dimensional fault surfaces, and application of theoretical and statistical approaches to the physics of fault rupture. The approach is keyed to the development of a Master Model, which is a framework in which geologic, geodetic, geophysical, and seismological information pertinent to earthquakes in southern California will be integrated for the purpose of developing a time-space dependent probabilistic hazard analysis of the region which may be used for predicting the levels of strong ground motions. The Center's activities can be categorized into four major areas: data base maintenance, modeling and model construction, model maintenance, and interpretation and use of the models. Research groups will be organized to develop each technical component of the Master Model. Core activities include: establishment of a data center for real-time seismic data acquisition, data archiving and distribution, and data retrieval service; fault- specific geophysical, geodetic, and geologic field studies; analysis of existing and new short-period network data to improve the delineation of active faults; development of a physical model of the earthquake process to establish a physical basis for the characteristic earthquake model; investigation of source, path, and site effects for strong ground motion prediction; regional tectonics, and commencement of a conceptual study for a pilot geotechnical project in an area prone to liquefaction and/or landsliding. Much of the industrialized world lives in earthquake prone regions such as the Pacific Rim and the Alpine-Himalayan belt. Earthquake belts generally provide the most hospitable climates and the greatest abundance of natural resources. Thus, as population densities and concentrations of wealth grow in these areas, the earthquake risk increases. Earthquake hazard mitigation is increasingly important to society - the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake alone caused over $7 billion in damage and 66 deaths. Only through understanding the process can reliable forecasts be made of when and where potential destructive earthquakes may occur. The Center will stimulate enhanced activity in precollege education and in the development of human resources.