Southern California Earthquake Center: Research Program in Earthquake System Science, 2017-2022

该合作协议为南加州地震中心(SCEC)提供资金，为期5年，从2017年2月1日至2022年1月31日(SCEC5)。该中心是一个大型机构联盟，在全国范围内分布，而且越来越多地分布在世界各地。目前，有1000多名地震专业人员参与了SCEC项目。该研究计划由研究人员驱动，支持地震学、构造大地测量学、地震地质学和计算科学的核心研究和教育。SCEC社区通过从地震和大地传感器、地质野外观测和实验室实验收集信息；通过系统级的基于物理的建模综合地震现象的知识；以及交流对地震灾害的理解来促进地震系统科学的发展，以降低地震风险并提高社区的复原力。南加州数据丰富，城市化人口超过2000万，构成了国家地震风险的最大份额。最近的研究对圣安德烈-阿斯断层系统目前的地震危险性提出了关键问题。SCEC5科学计划的战略框架是以地震科学的五个基本问题的形式提出的：(1)断层是如何在不同的时间和空间尺度上加载的？(2)断层外的非弹性变形对应变积累、动态破裂和辐射地震能量的作用是什么？(3)断裂带和围岩的演变结构、组成和物理性质如何影响对地震和无地震滑动的剪切阻力？(4)强烈的地面运动如何取决于动力地震系统的复杂性和非线性？(5)具体的系统研究可以通过哪些方式增强对地震可预测性的总体理解？这些问题涵盖了推动加州地震研究的关键问题，并为衡量拟议的SCEC5研究活动的智力价值提供了基础。SCEC的长期科学愿景是开发全面的、综合的、经验证的、可预测的、并与观测相验证的地震过程的动力学模型。SCEC5核心计划的科学目标是提供新的概念，以提高地震系统模型的可预测性，为检验模型提供新的数据，并更好地理解模型的不确定性。SCEC验证工作将基础地震研究与概率地震风险分析、业务地震预报、地震预警和快速地震响应的实际需求紧密结合起来。此外，风险降低问题--需要以有用的信息为动力的行动--将SCEC科学与地震工程紧密地联系在一起。SCEC与工程组织的协作针对的是端到端的、基于物理的建模能力，该能力跨越了从断裂到屋檐的系统流程。SCEC通过其使命与社会科学联系起来，以降低风险和增强复原力的方式向利益相关者传达权威信息。SCEC的愿景是让最终用户和广大公众参与正在进行的、以社区为中心的对话，讨论如何通过采取特定行动来管理特定风险。SCEC传播、教育和外展(CEO)计划将在多个层面上促进这一对话，并继续建立组织合作伙伴网络，这些网络可以协同行动，为数百万不同年龄和社会经济水平的人做好应对不可避免的地震灾害的准备。

This cooperative agreement funds the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) for the 5-year period from 1 Feb 2017 to 31 Jan 2022 (SCEC5). The Center is a large consortium of institutions with a national, and increasingly worldwide, distribution. Currently, over 1000 earthquake professionals are participating in SCEC projects. This research program is investigator-driven and supports core research and education in seismology, tectonic geodesy, earthquake geology, and computational science. The SCEC community advances earthquake system science by gathering information from seismic and geodetic sensors, geologic field observations, and laboratory experiments; synthesizing knowledge of earthquake phenomena through system-level, physics-based modeling; and communicating understanding of seismic hazards to reduce earthquake risk and promote community resilience. Southern California is data-rich and, with an urbanized population exceeding 20 million, comprises the lion's share of national earthquake risk. Recent research has posed crucial questions about the current earthquake hazard of the San Andre-as fault system. The strategic framework for the SCEC5 Science Plan has been cast in the form of five basic questions of earthquake science: (1) How are faults loaded on different temporal and spatial scales? (2) What is the role of off-fault inelastic deformation on strain accumulation, dynamic rupture, and radiated seismic energy? (3) How do the evolving structure, composition and physical properties of fault zones and surrounding rock affect shear resistance to seismic and aseismic slip? (4) How do strong ground motions depend on the complexities and nonlinearities of dynamic earthquake systems? (5) In what ways can system-specific studies enhance the general understanding of earthquake predictability? These questions cover the key issues driving earthquake research in California, and they provide a basis for gauging the intellectual merit of proposed SCEC5 research activities. SCEC's long-range science vision is to develop dynamical models of earthquake processes that are comprehensive, integrative, verified, predictive, and validated against observations. The science goal of the SCEC5 core program is to provide new concepts that can improve the predictability of the earth-quake system models, new data for testing the models, and a better understanding of model uncertain-ties. SCEC validation efforts tightly couple basic earthquake research to the practical needs of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, operational earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, and rapid earthquake response. Moreover, the risk-reduction problem?which requires actions motivated by useful information?strongly couples SCEC science to earthquake engineering. SCEC collaborations with engineering organizations are directed towards end-to-end, physics-based modeling capabilities that span system processes from ?ruptures-to-rafters.? SCEC connects to the social sciences through its mission to convey authoritative information to stakeholders in ways that result in lowered risk and enhanced resilience. SCEC's vision is to engage end-users and the public at large in on-going, community-centric conversations about how to manage particular risks by taking specific actions. The SCEC Communication, Education, and Outreach (CEO) program will promote this dialog on many levels and continue to build networks of organizational partners that can act in concert to prepare millions of people of all ages and socioeconomic levels for inevitable earthquake disasters.